JapanversusIndonesia

12 May 2026 · T20

Sano International Cricket Ground · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Japan won by 41 runs

Japan20.0 overs142/7 Indonesia19.1 overs101/10 Sano International Cricket Ground ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Japan more likely to win

83%Japan17%Indonesia

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Japan rate stronger than Indonesia (1,555 vs 1,371 on our results rating)
In the last 9 T20 internationals between these sides, Japan won 6 and Indonesia won 3
Japan are playing at home in Japan

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Japan started on 82%; Japan batted first.

Japan’s chance of winning (%) · Indonesia is the rest

Japan's chances ranged from 69% to 100% during the match (Indonesia: 0% to 32%).

Biggest swings

3.4: Gaurav Tiwari to S Ravichandran, S Ravichandran out. Indonesia up from 22% to 29%.
2nd inns 6.2: C Hinze to S Jegannathan, S Jegannathan out. Japan up from 73% to 82%.
2nd inns 8.6: S Ravichandran to KN Chaddha, KN Chaddha out. Japan up from 84% to 90%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Japan142/7 Indonesia101/10

Innings 1

Japan

142/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Japan batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Kendel Kadowaki-Flemingstumped · Dharma Kesuma · Gaurav Tiwari 1 fours · 1 sixes	stumped · Dharma Kesuma · b Gaurav Tiwari	12	7	1	1	171.43
Abhishek Anandbowled · F Banunaek 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b F Banunaek	1	2	0	0	50.00
Esam Rahmancaught · Anjar Tadarus · Kadek Gamantika 4 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Anjar Tadarus · b Kadek Gamantika	27	27	4	0	100.00
S Ravichandranbowled · Gaurav Tiwari 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Gaurav Tiwari	4	7	0	0	57.14
A Patmorelbw · Sudhakar Jegannathan 3 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Sudhakar Jegannathan	52	49	3	0	106.12

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
F Banunaek0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	17	2	5.67	1
Gaurav Tiwari0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	22	2	5.50	1
Danilson Hawoe0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	22	0	11.00	1
Gede Arta0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	28	0	9.33	0
Kadek Gamantika0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	24	1	6.00	0
Sudhakar Jegannathan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	27	2	6.75	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	4	4/1
2	11	15/2
3	7	22/2
4	3	25/3
5	7	32/3
6	2	34/3
7	7	41/3
8	6	47/3
9	7	54/3
10	2	56/3
11	14	70/3
12	4	74/4
13	8	82/4
14	7	89/4
15	5	94/4
16	11	105/4
17	15	120/4
18	7	127/5
19	7	134/6
20	8	142/7

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