Antigua and Barbuda FalconsversusBarbados Tridents

25 Aug 2026 · T20

Sir Vivian Richards Stadium, North Sound, Antigua · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Antigua and Barbuda Falcons won by 30 runs

Antigua and Barbuda Falcons20.0 overs155/5 Barbados Tridents18.0 overs125/10 Sir Vivian Richards Stadium, North Sound, Antigua ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Antigua and Barbuda Falcons started on 50%; Antigua and Barbuda Falcons batted first.

Antigua and Barbuda Falcons’s chance of winning (%) · Barbados Tridents is the rest

Antigua and Barbuda Falcons's chances ranged from 25% to 99% during the match (Barbados Tridents: 1% to 75%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 7.3: RRS Cornwall to Q de Kock, Q de Kock out. Antigua and Barbuda Falcons up from 46% to 62%.
2nd inns 12.6: JM James to SE Rutherford, SE Rutherford out. Antigua and Barbuda Falcons up from 52% to 70%.
2nd inns 13.2: Shadab Khan to RA Clarke, RA Clarke out. Antigua and Barbuda Falcons up from 72% to 89%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Antigua and Barbuda Falcons155/5 Barbados Tridents125/10

Innings 1