EnglandversusSouth Africa

2 Jul 2026 · T20

The Oval · Venue photograph

Recorded result

England won by 40 runs

England20.0 overs169/5 South Africa20.0 overs129/8 The Oval ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

England more likely to win

78%England22%South Africa

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, England rate stronger than South Africa (1,785 vs 1,689 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, England won 8 and South Africa won 2
England are playing at home in the United Kingdom

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

England started on 75%; England batted first.

England’s chance of winning (%) · South Africa is the rest

England's chances ranged from 55% to 100% during the match (South Africa: 0% to 45%).

Biggest swings

1.1: S Ismail to AE Jones, AE Jones out. South Africa up from 25% to 34%.
3.2: S Ismail to A Capsey, A Capsey out. South Africa up from 34% to 42%.
2nd inns 5.4: LCN Smith to L Wolvaardt, L Wolvaardt out. England up from 66% to 76%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

England169/5 South Africa129/8

Innings 1

England

169/520.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

England batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Amy Jonescaught · Annerie Dercksen · Shabnim Ismail 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Annerie Dercksen · b Shabnim Ismail	2	4	0	0	50.00
Danielle Wyattbowled · Marizanne Kapp 2 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Marizanne Kapp	12	9	2	0	133.33
Nat Sciver-Bruntcaught · Tazmin Brits · Nonkululeko Mlaba 11 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Tazmin Brits · b Nonkululeko Mlaba	75	47	11	1	159.57
Alice Capsey

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Marizanne Kapp0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	16	1	4.00	1
Shabnim Ismail0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	31	2	7.75	5
Ayabonga Khaka0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	40	0	10.00	1
Nonkululeko Mlaba0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	25	2	6.25	0
Nadine de Klerk0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	39	0	13.00	0
Chloe Tryon0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	11	0	11.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	3	3/0
2	17	20/1
3	2	22/2
4	6	28/3
5	5	33/3
6	2	35/3
7	7	42/3
8	8	50/3
9	8	58/3
10	10	68/3
11	11	79/3
12	12	91/3
13	9	100/3
14	13	113/3
15	3	116/3
16	7	123/3
17	15	138/3
18	16	154/3
19	6	160/5
20	9	169/5

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