Melbourne RenegadesversusSydney Sixers

1 Jan 2026 · T20

Docklands Stadium, Melbourne · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Sydney Sixers won by 6 wickets

Melbourne Renegades20.0 overs164/9 Sydney Sixers19.1 overs168/4 Docklands Stadium, Melbourne ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Melbourne Renegades started on 44%; Melbourne Renegades batted first.

Melbourne Renegades’s chance of winning (%) · Sydney Sixers is the rest

Melbourne Renegades's chances ranged from 0% to 63% during the match (Sydney Sixers: 37% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 6.2: GS Sandhu to DP Hughes, DP Hughes out. Melbourne Renegades up from 26% to 38%.
2nd inns 8.5: W Sutherland to JR Philippe, JR Philippe out. Melbourne Renegades up from 28% to 40%.
2nd inns 14.5: M Spoors to BJ Dwarshuis, BJ Dwarshuis out. Melbourne Renegades up from 22% to 33%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Melbourne Renegades164/9 Sydney Sixers168/4

Innings 1