Budapest Cup · 2025 · Men

HungaryversusRomania

25 Jul 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Romania won by 10 wickets

Hungary14.5 overs93/10 Romania8.0 overs94/0 GB Oval, Szodliget ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

47%Hungary53%Romania

Why

In the last 4 T20 internationals between these sides, Romania won 3 and Hungary won 1
Hungary are playing at home in Hungary
On results in T20 internationals so far, Romania rate stronger than Hungary (1,484 vs 1,472 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Hungary started on 46%; Hungary batted first.

Hungary’s chance of winning (%) · Romania is the rest

Hungary's chances ranged from 0% to 63% during the match (Romania: 37% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2.2: M Koli to V Ravindran, V Ravindran out. Romania up from 39% to 50%.
3.2: Muhammad Moiz to Abbas Ghani, Abbas Ghani out. Romania up from 53% to 65%.
4.3: M Koli to Zahir Mohammed, Zahir Mohammed out. Romania up from 78% to 89%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Hungary93/10 Romania94/0

Innings 1

Hungary

93/1014.5 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Hungary batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Abbas Ghanicaught · S Vashisht · Muhammad Moiz 0 fours · 1 sixes	caught · S Vashisht · b Muhammad Moiz	11	7	0	1	157.14
V Ravindrancaught · R Pisal · M Koli 1 fours · 1 sixes	caught · R Pisal · b M Koli	13	9	1	1	144.44
Zeeshan Kukikhelcaught · Muhammad Moiz · M Koli 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Muhammad Moiz · b M Koli	0	5	0	0	0.00
MP Ainsworthcaught · S Vashisht · Taranjeet Singh 1 fours · 1 sixes	caught · S Vashisht · b Taranjeet Singh	27	31	1	1	87.10
Zahir Mohammedcaught · AN Lascu · M Koli 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · AN Lascu · b M Koli	0	2	0	0	0.00

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
M Koli0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.5	12	5	3.13	2
Luca Petre0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	16	0	16.00	3
Muhammad Moiz0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	23	3	5.75	1
Taranjeet Singh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	16	1	4.00	0
Ali Hussain0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	26	1	13.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	8	8/0
2	16	24/0
3	1	25/1
4	2	27/2
5	2	29/4
6	6	35/5
7	4	39/5
8	9	48/5
9	5	53/5
10	9	62/6
11	5	67/6
12	17	84/6
13	2	86/7
14	6	92/8
15	1	93/10

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