BahrainversusBhutan

9 Dec 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Bahrain won by 63 runs

Bahrain20.0 overs152/9 Bhutan17.2 overs89/10 Gelephu International Cricket Ground ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Bahrain more likely to win

88%Bahrain12%Bhutan

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Bahrain rate stronger than Bhutan (1,681 vs 1,348 on our results rating)
Bhutan are playing at home in Bhutan
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Bahrain won 1 and Bhutan won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Bahrain started on 87%; Bahrain batted first.

Bahrain’s chance of winning (%) · Bhutan is the rest

Bahrain's chances ranged from 76% to 100% during the match (Bhutan: 0% to 24%).

Biggest swings

0.2: T Wangchuk to Asif Ali, Asif Ali out. Bhutan up from 13% to 20%.
2nd inns 2.4: Abdul Majid Abbasi to T Jamtsho, T Jamtsho out. Bahrain up from 76% to 84%.
2nd inns 3.5: Ali Dawood to Namgay Thinley, Namgay Thinley out. Bahrain up from 82% to 89%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Bahrain152/9 Bhutan89/10

Innings 1

Bahrain

152/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bahrain batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Asif Alicaught · Tashi Phuntsho · T Wangchuk 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Tashi Phuntsho · b T Wangchuk	0	2	0	0	0.00
P Kurupbowled · Tashi Dorji 5 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Tashi Dorji	27	25	5	0	108.00
Fiaz Ahmedcaught · Gakul Ghalley · Namgay Thinley 2 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Gakul Ghalley · b Namgay Thinley	30	29	2	1	103.45
Ahmer Bin Nasircaught · Tashi Phuntsho · Sonam Yeshey 0 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Tashi Phuntsho · b Sonam Yeshey	41	34	0	2	120.59
Junaid Azizcaught · Tashi Dorji · Sonam Yeshey 1 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Tashi Dorji · b Sonam Yeshey	18	15	1	1	120.00

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
T Wangchuk0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	28	1	9.33	0	0
Tashi Phuntsho0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	9	0	4.50	0	0
Sonam Yeshey0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	31	4	7.75	0	0
Thinley Jamtsho0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	10	0	10.00	2	0
Tashi Dorji0 maidens · 0 wides · 2 no-balls	2.0	22	1	11.00	0	2
Namgay Thinley0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	22	1	5.50	0	0
J Singye0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	27	1	6.75	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/1
2	1	3/1
3	12	15/1
4	8	23/1
5	9	32/1
6	11	43/1
7	5	48/1
8	6	54/2
9	7	61/2
10	16	77/2
11	2	79/2
12	6	85/2
13	3	88/3
14	5	93/3
15	10	103/3
16	8	111/3
17	10	121/4
18	14	135/4
19	7	142/8
20	10	152/9

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.