**Trent Bridge**
Photo: Mattbuck
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

Vitality Blast · 2024 · Men

NottinghamshireversusBirmingham Bears

7 Jul 2024 · T20

Trent Bridge · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Birmingham Bears won by 9 wickets

Nottinghamshire17.2 overs57/10 Birmingham Bears5.2 overs61/1 Trent Bridge ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Nottinghamshire started on 42%; Nottinghamshire batted first.

Nottinghamshire’s chance of winning (%) · Birmingham Bears is the rest

Nottinghamshire's chances ranged from 0% to 45% during the match (Birmingham Bears: 55% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2.2: GHS Garton to BJR Martindale, BJR Martindale out. Birmingham Bears up from 59% to 70%.
2.3: GHS Garton to BT Slater, BT Slater out. Birmingham Bears up from 70% to 79%.
4.4: ZGF Foulkes to M Montgomery, M Montgomery out. Birmingham Bears up from 88% to 94%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Nottinghamshire57/10 Birmingham Bears61/1

Innings 1