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ICC Women's T20 World Cup Europe Division 1 Qualifier · 2025 · Women
27 Aug 2025 · T20
Recorded result
Ireland more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Ireland started on 80%; Ireland batted first.
Ireland's chances ranged from 71% to 100% during the match (Italy: 0% to 30%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amy Hunterbowled · EL Bartram 7 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b EL Bartram | 62 | 51 | 7 | 0 | 121.57 |
| Ava Canningcaught · Chloe Piparo · C Mahamalage 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Chloe Piparo · b C Mahamalage | 4 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Laura Delanystumped · M Rathnayake · EL Bartram 13 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · M Rathnayake · b EL Bartram | 91 | 57 | 13 | 0 | 159.65 |
| Rebecca Stokellstumped · M Rathnayake · Ilenia Sims 0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · M Rathnayake · b Ilenia Sims | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Leah Paulcaught and bowled · Ilenia Sims 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Ilenia Sims | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
| run out · Ilenia Sims, EL Bartram |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0.00 |
| Arlene Kellynot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Jane Maguirenot out 0 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 6* | 1 | 0 | 1 | 600.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 8 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C Mahamalage0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 32 | 1 | 8.00 | 1 | 0 |
| S Kanankege0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 31 | 0 | 7.75 | 1 | 0 |
| Ilenia Sims0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 22 | 2 | 7.33 | 0 | 0 |
| T Araliya0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 13.00 | 0 | 1 |
| ECB Moore0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 0.5 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 10.80 | 5 | 0 |
| EL Bartram0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.1 | 0 | 23 | 2 | 10.62 | 1 | 0 |
| D Nanayakkara0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 8.33 | 0 | 1 |
| N Asuramanage0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 10.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-17 (Ava Canning, 2.5) · 2-156 (Amy Hunter, 17.5) · 3-161 (Rebecca Stokell, 18.3) · 4-163 (Leah Paul, 18.5) · 5-169 (CE Coulter Reilly, 19.3) · 6-169 (Laura Delany, 19.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 6 | 12/0 |
| 3 | 5 | 17/1 |
| 4 | 7 | 24/1 |
| 5 | 13 | 37/1 |
| 6 | 7 | 44/1 |
| 7 | 6 | 50/1 |
| 8 | 13 | 63/1 |
| 9 | 9 | 72/1 |
| 10 | 9 | 81/1 |
| 11 | 9 | 90/1 |
| 12 | 8 | 98/1 |
| 13 | 6 | 104/1 |
| 14 | 12 | 116/1 |
| 15 | 10 | 126/1 |
| 16 | 11 | 137/1 |
| 17 | 8 | 145/1 |
| 18 | 11 | 156/2 |
| 19 | 7 | 163/4 |
| 20 | 12 | 175/6 |
Chloe Piparo: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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