Cook IslandsversusJapan

13 May 2025 · T20

Sano International Cricket Ground · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Japan won by 2 wickets

Cook Islands20.0 overs104/8 Japan17.5 overs107/8 Sano International Cricket Ground ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Japan more likely to win

22%Cook Islands78%Japan

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Japan rate stronger than Cook Islands (1,526 vs 1,384 on our results rating)
Japan are playing at home in Japan
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Japan won 1 and Cook Islands won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Cook Islands started on 21%; Cook Islands batted first.

Cook Islands’s chance of winning (%) · Japan is the rest

Cook Islands's chances ranged from 0% to 48% during the match (Japan: 52% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 1.4: HB Dickson to B Ito-Davis, B Ito-Davis out. Cook Islands up from 12% to 28%.
2nd inns 2.4: MTMMJ Ave to Abhishek Anand, Abhishek Anand out. Cook Islands up from 18% to 48%.
2nd inns 6.2: A Parima to D Suzuki, D Suzuki out. Cook Islands up from 12% to 37%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Cook Islands104/8 Japan107/8

Innings 1

Cook Islands

104/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Cook Islands batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
HB Dicksonbowled · Abdul Samad (2) 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Abdul Samad (2)	0	2	0	0	0.00
T Parimalbw · B Ito-Davis 2 fours · 1 sixes	lbw · b B Ito-Davis	16	14	2	1	114.29
A Parimabowled · Abdul Samad (2) 2 fours · 1 sixes	bowled · b Abdul Samad (2)	16	20	2	1	80.00
Ma'ava Avecaught · KH Abe · S Ravichandran 1 fours · 1 sixes	caught · KH Abe · b S Ravichandran	24	31	1	1	77.42
C Dicksonstumped · W Miyauchi · S Ravichandran 0 fours · 0 sixes	stumped · W Miyauchi · b S Ravichandran	7	16	0	0	43.75
L Denny

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Abdul Samad (2)1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	13	2	3.25	1	0
R Drake0 maidens · 5 wides · 1 no-balls	1.0	0	6	0	6.00	5	1
Ibrahim Takahashi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	26	0	6.50	0	0
D Suzuki0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	16	0	16.00	2	0
B Ito-Davis1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	14	1	3.50	0	0
S Ravichandran0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	16	4	4.00	0	0
K Kato-Stafford0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	10	0	5.00	1	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/1
2	7	9/1
3	1	10/1
4	16	26/1
5	16	42/1
6	0	42/2
7	0	42/3
8	4	46/3
9	3	49/3
10	4	53/3
11	5	58/3
12	8	66/4
13	6	72/4
14	3	75/4
15	3	78/5
16	3	81/5
17	1	82/7
18	5	87/7
19	8	95/8
20	9	104/8

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