Adelaide StrikersversusHobart Hurricanes

5 Jan 2025 · T20

Bellerive Oval, Hobart · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Hobart Hurricanes won by 5 wickets

Adelaide Strikers20.0 overs186/5 Hobart Hurricanes18.4 overs187/5 Bellerive Oval, Hobart ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Adelaide Strikers started on 43%; Adelaide Strikers batted first.

Adelaide Strikers’s chance of winning (%) · Hobart Hurricanes is the rest

Adelaide Strikers's chances ranged from 1% to 75% during the match (Hobart Hurricanes: 25% to 99%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 9.2: CJ Boyce to SD Hope, SD Hope out. Adelaide Strikers up from 42% to 56%.
2nd inns 10.4: L Pope to BR McDermott, BR McDermott out. Adelaide Strikers up from 52% to 68%.
2nd inns 14.1: J Overton to TH David, six by TH David. Hobart Hurricanes up from 51% to 63%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Adelaide Strikers186/5 Hobart Hurricanes187/5

Innings 1