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Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
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ICC Men's T20 World Cup · 2025/26 · Men
17 Feb 2026 · T20
MA Chidambaram Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Canada started on 33%; Canada batted first.
Canada's chances ranged from 0% to 55% during the match (New Zealand: 45% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YS Samracaught · Glenn Phillips · Jacob Duffy 11 fours · 6 sixes | caught · Glenn Phillips · b Jacob Duffy | 110 | 65 | 11 | 6 | 169.23 |
| Dilpreet Bajwacaught · Glenn Phillips · Kyle Jamieson 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Glenn Phillips · b Kyle Jamieson | 36 | 39 | 4 | 0 | 92.31 |
| Navneet Dhaliwalcaught · Glenn Phillips · Matt Henry 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Glenn Phillips · b Matt Henry | 10 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 142.86 |
| Nicholas Kirtonlbw · James Neesham 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b James Neesham | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
| Harsh Thakernot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
| not out |
| 8* |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| 266.67 |
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 3 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Matt Henry0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 28 | 1 | 7.00 | 2 | 0 |
 Jacob Duffy0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 25 | 1 | 6.25 | 0 | 0 |
 Kyle Jamieson0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 41 | 1 | 10.25 | 1 | 0 |
| James Neesham0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 38 | 1 | 9.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Cole McConchie0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 34 | 0 | 11.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Glenn Phillips0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-116 (Dilpreet Bajwa, 14.0) · 2-153 (Navneet Dhaliwal, 17.4) · 3-160 (Nicholas Kirton, 18.3) · 4-164 (YS Samra, 19.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 13/0 |
| 3 | 5 | 18/0 |
| 4 | 8 | 26/0 |
| 5 | 6 | 32/0 |
| 6 | 18 | 50/0 |
| 7 | 6 | 56/0 |
| 8 | 7 | 63/0 |
| 9 | 10 | 73/0 |
| 10 | 2 | 75/0 |
| 11 | 6 | 81/0 |
| 12 | 2 | 83/0 |
| 13 | 19 | 102/0 |
| 14 | 14 | 116/1 |
| 15 | 7 | 123/1 |
| 16 | 13 | 136/1 |
| 17 | 14 | 150/1 |
| 18 | 8 | 158/2 |
| 19 | 5 | 163/3 |
| 20 | 10 | 173/4 |
Kyle Jamieson: Photographer - David Hollander · CC BY 3.0 nz
Matt Henry: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Saad Bin Zafar: Apnagm · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jacob Duffy: Dave Morton · Public domain
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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