IndiaversusAustralia

21 Feb 2026 · T20

Adelaide Oval · Venue photograph

Recorded result

India won by 17 runs

India20.0 overs176/6 Australia20.0 overs159/9 Adelaide Oval ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Australia more likely to win

29%India71%Australia

Why

In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Australia won 8 and India won 2
On results in T20 internationals so far, Australia rate stronger than India (1,734 vs 1,693 on our results rating)
Australia are playing at home in Australia

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

India started on 26%; India batted first.

India’s chance of winning (%) · Australia is the rest

India's chances ranged from 26% to 100% during the match (Australia: 0% to 74%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 2.2: Renuka Singh to BL Mooney, BL Mooney out. India up from 57% to 70%.
2nd inns 8.2: N Shree Charani to P Litchfield, P Litchfield out. India up from 74% to 86%.
2nd inns 15.5: A Reddy to A Gardner, A Gardner out. India up from 74% to 86%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

India176/6 Australia159/9

Innings 1

India

176/620.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

India batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Smriti Mandhanacaught · Ashleigh Gardner · Annabel Sutherland 8 fours · 3 sixes	caught · Ashleigh Gardner · b Annabel Sutherland	82	55	8	3	149.09
Shafali Vermacaught · Annabel Sutherland · Kim Garth 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Annabel Sutherland · b Kim Garth	7	6	1	0	116.67
Jemimah Rodriguescaught · Ellyse Perry · Annabel Sutherland 4 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Ellyse Perry · b Annabel Sutherland	59	46	4	0	128.26

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Darcie Brown0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	27	0	9.00	5
Ashleigh Gardner0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	36	0	9.00	0
Kim Garth0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	25	1	8.33	0
Sophie Molineux0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	34	1	8.50	0
Annabel Sutherland0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	34	2	8.50	0
Georgia Wareham0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	19	0	9.50	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	10	10/0
2	4	14/0
3	9	23/1
4	8	31/1
5	9	40/1
6	14	54/1
7	6	60/1
8	7	67/1
9	10	77/1
10	9	86/1
11	4	90/1
12	11	101/1
13	9	110/1
14	11	121/1
15	6	127/1
16	7	134/1
17	16	150/2
18	13	163/2
19	10	173/3
20	3	176/6

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