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Photo: Dave Morton
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ICC Champions Trophy · 2024/25 · Men
9 Mar 2025 · ODI
Dubai International Cricket Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
India more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
New Zealand started on 33%; New Zealand batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Younglbw · Varun Chakravarthy2 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Varun Chakravarthy | 15 | 23 | 2 | 0 | 65.22 |
 Rachin Ravindrabowled · Kuldeep Yadav4 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Kuldeep Yadav | 37 | 29 | 4 | 1 | 127.59 |
 Kane Williamsoncaught and bowled · Kuldeep Yadav1 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Kuldeep Yadav | 11 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 78.57 |
| Daryl Mitchellcaught · Rohit Sharma · Mohammed Shami 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rohit Sharma · b Mohammed Shami | 63 | 101 |
New Zealand's chances ranged from 2% to 61% during the match (India: 39% to 98%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 62.38 |
 Tom Lathamlbw · Ravindra Jadeja0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Ravindra Jadeja | 14 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 46.67 |
|---|
| Glenn Phillipsbowled · Varun Chakravarthy 2 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Varun Chakravarthy | 34 | 52 | 2 | 1 | 65.38 |
|---|
| Michael Bracewellnot out 3 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 53* | 40 | 3 | 2 | 132.50 |
|---|
| Mitchell Santnerrun out · Virat Kohli, KL Rahul · Hardik Pandya 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Virat Kohli, KL Rahul | 8 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 80.00 |
|---|
| Nathan Smithnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 13 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mohammed Shami0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 74 | 1 | 8.22 | 1 | 0 |
 Hardik Pandya0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 10.00 | 3 | 0 |
| Varun Chakravarthy0 maidens · 7 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 45 | 2 | 4.50 | 7 | 0 |
 Kuldeep Yadav0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 40 | 2 | 4.00 | 1 | 0 |
 Axar Patel0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 3.63 | 1 | 0 |
 Ravindra Jadeja0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 30 | 1 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-57 (Will Young, 7.5) · 2-69 (Rachin Ravindra, 10.1) · 3-75 (Kane Williamson, 12.2) · 4-108 (Tom Latham, 23.2) · 5-165 (Glenn Phillips, 37.5) · 6-211 (Daryl Mitchell, 45.4) · 7-239 (Mitchell Santner, 49.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 6/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 10/0 |
| 4 | 16 | 26/0 |
| 5 | 11 | 37/0 |
| 6 | 9 | 46/0 |
| 7 | 5 | 51/0 |
| 8 | 7 | 58/1 |
| 9 | 6 | 64/1 |
| 10 | 5 | 69/1 |
| 11 | 4 | 73/2 |
| 12 | 2 | 75/2 |
| 13 | 2 | 77/3 |
| 14 | 4 | 81/3 |
| 15 | 2 | 83/3 |
| 16 | 2 | 85/3 |
| 17 | 5 | 90/3 |
| 18 | 5 | 95/3 |
| 19 | 4 | 99/3 |
| 20 | 2 | 101/3 |
| 21 | 1 | 102/3 |
| 22 | 2 | 104/3 |
| 23 | 3 | 107/3 |
| 24 | 3 | 110/4 |
| 25 | 4 | 114/4 |
| 26 | 2 | 116/4 |
| 27 | 7 | 123/4 |
| 28 | 3 | 126/4 |
| 29 | 5 | 131/4 |
| 30 | 4 | 135/4 |
| 31 | 3 | 138/4 |
| 32 | 5 | 143/4 |
| 33 | 4 | 147/4 |
| 34 | 2 | 149/4 |
| 35 | 4 | 153/4 |
| 36 | 3 | 156/4 |
| 37 | 5 | 161/4 |
| 38 | 4 | 165/5 |
| 39 | 3 | 168/5 |
| 40 | 4 | 172/5 |
| 41 | 3 | 175/5 |
| 42 | 3 | 178/5 |
| 43 | 6 | 184/5 |
| 44 | 12 | 196/5 |
| 45 | 5 | 201/5 |
| 46 | 11 | 212/6 |
| 47 | 4 | 216/6 |
| 48 | 11 | 227/6 |
| 49 | 12 | 239/7 |
| 50 | 12 | 251/7 |
Hardik Pandya: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Kyle Jamieson: Photographer - David Hollander · CC BY 3.0 nz
Axar Patel: Anand Anil · CC BY-SA 4.0
KL Rahul: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Rohit Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
William O’Rourke: Dave Morton · Public domain
Kuldeep Yadav: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Will Young: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ravindra Jadeja: SR Vlogs · CC BY 3.0
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tom Latham: Robert Drummond · CC0
Shubman Gill: Bollywood Hungama · CC BY 3.0
Mohammed Shami: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Virat Kohli: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Shreyas Iyer: 247 Entertainment · CC BY 3.0
Kane Williamson: Mark Lockett · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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