MalaysiaversusPapua New Guinea

Papua New Guinea more likely to win

Why

• On results in T20 internationals so far, Papua New Guinea rate stronger than Malaysia (1,601 vs 1,490 on our results rating)
• In the last 5 T20 internationals between these sides, Papua New Guinea won 4 and Malaysia won 1
• Malaysia are playing at home in Malaysia

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

Malaysia started on 29%; Malaysia batted first.

Malaysia's chances ranged from 28% to 100% during the match (Papua New Guinea: 0% to 72%).

Biggest swings

1. 2nd inns 0.3: Syed Aziz to L Siaka, L Siaka out. Malaysia up from 67% to 76%.
2. 2nd inns 2.1: S Vijay Unni to HGV Vare, HGV Vare out. Malaysia up from 74% to 82%.
3. 2nd inns 10.2: S Vijay Unni to CJA Amini, CJA Amini out. Malaysia up from 82% to 90%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.