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Photo: St Kitts & Nevis Government; permission: https://www.flickr.com/photos/skngov/14733563912
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY 2.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Bangladesh Women tour of West Indies · 2024/25 · Women
21 Jan 2025 · ODI
Warner Park, St Kitts · Venue photographRecorded result
West Indies more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Bangladesh started on 32%; Bangladesh batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Fargana Hoquecaught · Mandy Mangru · Deandra Dottin1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mandy Mangru · b Deandra Dottin | 18 | 35 | 1 | 0 | 51.43 |
 Murshida Khatuncaught · Mandy Mangru · Aaliyah Alleyne2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mandy Mangru · b Aaliyah Alleyne | 12 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 50.00 |
 Sharmin Akhterlbw · Afy Fletcher2 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Afy Fletcher | 11 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 57.89 |
 Nigar Sultanacaught · Karishma Ramharack · Aaliyah Alleyne5 fours · 0 sixes |
Bangladesh's chances ranged from 13% to 100% during the match (West Indies: 0% to 87%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Karishma Ramharack · b Aaliyah Alleyne |
| 68 |
| 120 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 56.67 |
| Sobhana Mostarycaught · Jannillea Glasgow · Karishma Ramharack 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Jannillea Glasgow · b Karishma Ramharack | 23 | 32 | 1 | 1 | 71.88 |
|---|
 Fahima Khatunlbw · Karishma Ramharack0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Karishma Ramharack | 4 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 30.77 |
|---|
| Shorna Akterbowled · Karishma Ramharack 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Karishma Ramharack | 21 | 29 | 2 | 0 | 72.41 |
|---|
| Rabeya Khancaught · Hayley Matthews · Karishma Ramharack 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Hayley Matthews · b Karishma Ramharack | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
|---|
 Nahida Aktercaught · Hayley Matthews · Cherry-Ann Fraser1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Hayley Matthews · b Cherry-Ann Fraser | 9 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 69.23 |
|---|
 Marufa Akternot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Fariha Trisnabowled · Aaliyah Alleyne 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Aaliyah Alleyne | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 15 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Deandra Dottin1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 1.33 | 1 | 0 |
| Cherry-Ann Fraser0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 25 | 1 | 6.25 | 3 | 0 |
| Aaliyah Alleyne0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.5 | 0 | 24 | 3 | 4.11 | 2 | 0 |
 Afy Fletcher1 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 36 | 1 | 3.60 | 3 | 0 |
 Hayley Matthews0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 44 | 0 | 4.40 | 4 | 0 |
 Karishma Ramharack0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 33 | 4 | 3.30 | 2 | 0 |
| Zaida James0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 4.33 | 0 | 0 |
1-34 (Murshida Khatun, 9.2) · 2-35 (Fargana Hoque, 10.3) · 3-56 (Sharmin Akhter, 16.1) · 4-107 (Sobhana Mostary, 27.1) · 5-120 (Fahima Khatun, 32.0) · 6-158 (Shorna Akter, 41.2) · 7-166 (Rabeya Khan, 43.4) · 8-180 (Nahida Akter, 47.2) · 9-184 (Nigar Sultana, 48.4) · 10-184 (Fariha Trisna, 48.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 6/0 |
| 3 | 1 | 7/0 |
| 4 | 14 | 21/0 |
| 5 | 0 | 21/0 |
| 6 | 5 | 26/0 |
| 7 | 1 | 27/0 |
| 8 | 3 | 30/0 |
| 9 | 3 | 33/0 |
| 10 | 1 | 34/1 |
| 11 | 2 | 36/2 |
| 12 | 6 | 42/2 |
| 13 | 4 | 46/2 |
| 14 | 4 | 50/2 |
| 15 | 0 | 50/2 |
| 16 | 6 | 56/2 |
| 17 | 7 | 63/3 |
| 18 | 3 | 66/3 |
| 19 | 1 | 67/3 |
| 20 | 3 | 70/3 |
| 21 | 2 | 72/3 |
| 22 | 8 | 80/3 |
| 23 | 6 | 86/3 |
| 24 | 6 | 92/3 |
| 25 | 5 | 97/3 |
| 26 | 3 | 100/3 |
| 27 | 6 | 106/3 |
| 28 | 4 | 110/4 |
| 29 | 2 | 112/4 |
| 30 | 2 | 114/4 |
| 31 | 3 | 117/4 |
| 32 | 3 | 120/5 |
| 33 | 4 | 124/5 |
| 34 | 3 | 127/5 |
| 35 | 2 | 129/5 |
| 36 | 3 | 132/5 |
| 37 | 7 | 139/5 |
| 38 | 2 | 141/5 |
| 39 | 6 | 147/5 |
| 40 | 9 | 156/5 |
| 41 | 1 | 157/5 |
| 42 | 3 | 160/6 |
| 43 | 5 | 165/6 |
| 44 | 1 | 166/7 |
| 45 | 3 | 169/7 |
| 46 | 4 | 173/7 |
| 47 | 7 | 180/7 |
| 48 | 2 | 182/8 |
| 49 | 2 | 184/10 |
Sharmin Akhter: Digimarka · CC BY-SA 4.0
Fahima Khatun: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nigar Sultana: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Hayley Matthews: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Deandra Dottin: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nahida Akter: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Karishma Ramharack: SportsMax TV · CC BY 3.0
Marufa Akter: Press Information Department · Public domain
Shemaine Campbelle: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Murshida Khatun: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Fargana Hoque: Digimarka · CC BY-SA 4.0
Afy Fletcher: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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