IrelandversusPakistan

16 Jun 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Pakistan won by 3 wickets

Ireland20.0 overs106/9 Pakistan18.5 overs111/7 Central Broward Regional Park Stadium Turf Ground, Lauderhill ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Pakistan more likely to win

46%Ireland54%Pakistan

Why

In the last 4 T20 internationals between these sides, Pakistan won 3 and Ireland won 1
On results in T20 internationals so far, Ireland rate stronger than Pakistan (1,520 vs 1,503 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Ireland started on 45%; Ireland batted first.

Ireland’s chance of winning (%) · Pakistan is the rest

Ireland's chances ranged from 1% to 46% during the match (Pakistan: 55% to 99%).

Biggest swings

1.4: Mohammad Amir to PR Stirling, PR Stirling out. Pakistan up from 74% to 88%.
2nd inns 9.3: BJ McCarthy to Shadab Khan, Shadab Khan out. Ireland up from 11% to 28%.
2nd inns 10.6: C Campher to Imad Wasim, Imad Wasim out. Ireland up from 22% to 43%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Ireland106/9 Pakistan111/7

Innings 1

Ireland

106/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Ireland batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Andrew Balbirniebowled · Shaheen Afridi 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Shaheen Afridi	0	3	0	0	0.00
Paul Stirlingcaught · Mohammad Rizwan · Mohammad Amir 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Mohammad Rizwan · b Mohammad Amir	1	2	0	0	50.00
Lorcan Tuckercaught · Mohammad Rizwan · Shaheen Afridi 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Mohammad Rizwan · b Shaheen Afridi	2	2	0	0	100.00
Harry Tectorlbw · Shaheen Afridi 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Shaheen Afridi	0	6

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Shaheen Afridi0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	22	3	5.50	2
Mohammad Amir1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	11	2	2.75	0
Haris Rauf0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	17	1	4.25	0
Abbas Afridi0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	31	0	10.33	2
Shadab Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	11	0	11.00	0
Imad Wasim0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	8	3	2.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/2
2	6	8/3
3	7	15/4
4	2	17/4
5	11	28/4
6	4	32/5
7	1	33/6
8	8	41/6
9	7	48/6
10	11	59/6
11	16	75/6
12	1	76/7
13	3	79/7
14	1	80/9
15	6	86/9
16	3	89/9
17	0	89/9
18	6	95/9
19	8	103/9
20	3	106/9

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