Northern DistrictsversusCanterbury

8 Jan 2026 · T20

Seddon Park, Hamilton · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Northern Districts won by 105 runs

Northern Districts20.0 overs171/7 Canterbury14.5 overs66/10 Seddon Park, Hamilton ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Northern Districts started on 56%; Northern Districts batted first.

Northern Districts’s chance of winning (%) · Canterbury is the rest

Northern Districts's chances ranged from 51% to 100% during the match (Canterbury: 0% to 49%).

Biggest swings

0.6: MJ Banks to JM Watkin, JM Watkin out. Canterbury up from 36% to 45%.
2.3: MJ Banks to CA Gurrey, CA Gurrey out. Canterbury up from 37% to 46%.
4.5: GES Sullivan to E Wolland, E Wolland out. Canterbury up from 40% to 49%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Northern Districts171/7 Canterbury66/10

Innings 1