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South Africa tour of India · 2025/26 · Men
6 Dec 2025 · ODI
Dr. Y.S. Rajasekhara Reddy ACA-VDCA Cricket Stadium, Visakhapatnam · Venue photographRecorded result
India more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
South Africa started on 22%; South Africa batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Quinton de Kockbowled · Prasidh Krishna8 fours · 6 sixes | bowled · b Prasidh Krishna | 106 | 89 | 8 | 6 | 119.10 |
 Ryan Rickeltoncaught · KL Rahul · Arshdeep Singh0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · KL Rahul · b Arshdeep Singh | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Temba Bavumacaught · Virat Kohli · Ravindra Jadeja5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Virat Kohli · b Ravindra Jadeja | 48 | 67 | 5 | 0 | 71.64 |
| Matthew Breetzkelbw · Prasidh Krishna 0 fours · 2 sixes | lbw · b Prasidh Krishna | 24 |
South Africa's chances ranged from 0% to 48% during the match (India: 53% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 23 |
| 0 |
| 2 |
| 104.35 |
 Aiden Markramcaught · Virat Kohli · Prasidh Krishna0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Virat Kohli · b Prasidh Krishna | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Dewald Breviscaught · Rohit Sharma · Kuldeep Yadav 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Rohit Sharma · b Kuldeep Yadav | 29 | 29 | 2 | 1 | 100.00 |
|---|
 Marco Jansencaught · Ravindra Jadeja · Kuldeep Yadav2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ravindra Jadeja · b Kuldeep Yadav | 17 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 113.33 |
|---|
| Corbin Boschcaught and bowled · Kuldeep Yadav 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Kuldeep Yadav | 9 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 75.00 |
|---|
 Keshav Maharajnot out2 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 20* | 29 | 2 | 0 | 68.97 |
|---|
 Lungi Ngidilbw · Kuldeep Yadav0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Kuldeep Yadav | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10.00 |
|---|
| Ottniel Baartmanbowled · Prasidh Krishna 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Prasidh Krishna | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 42.86 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 7 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Arshdeep Singh1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 1 | 36 | 1 | 4.50 | 2 | 0 |
| Harshit Rana2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 2 | 44 | 0 | 5.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Prasidh Krishna0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.5 | 0 | 66 | 4 | 6.71 | 3 | 0 |
 Ravindra Jadeja0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 50 | 1 | 5.56 | 1 | 0 |
 Kuldeep Yadav1 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 41 | 4 | 4.10 | 1 | 1 |
 Tilak Varma0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 9.67 | 0 | 0 |
1-1 (Ryan Rickelton, 0.5) · 2-114 (Temba Bavuma, 21.0) · 3-168 (Matthew Breetzke, 28.2) · 4-170 (Aiden Markram, 29.0) · 5-199 (Quinton de Kock, 32.5) · 6-234 (Dewald Brevis, 38.1) · 7-235 (Marco Jansen, 38.3) · 8-252 (Corbin Bosch, 42.3) · 9-258 (Lungi Ngidi, 44.4) · 10-270 (Ottniel Baartman, 47.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| 2 | 0 | 1/1 |
| 3 | 0 | 1/1 |
| 4 | 12 | 13/1 |
| 5 | 5 | 18/1 |
| 6 | 0 | 18/1 |
| 7 | 5 | 23/1 |
| 8 | 2 | 25/1 |
| 9 | 9 | 34/1 |
| 10 | 8 | 42/1 |
| 11 | 18 | 60/1 |
| 12 | 5 | 65/1 |
| 13 | 2 | 67/1 |
| 14 | 5 | 72/1 |
| 15 | 6 | 78/1 |
| 16 | 8 | 86/1 |
| 17 | 6 | 92/1 |
| 18 | 3 | 95/1 |
| 19 | 5 | 100/1 |
| 20 | 4 | 104/1 |
| 21 | 10 | 114/2 |
| 22 | 12 | 126/2 |
| 23 | 4 | 130/2 |
| 24 | 8 | 138/2 |
| 25 | 5 | 143/2 |
| 26 | 15 | 158/2 |
| 27 | 2 | 160/2 |
| 28 | 7 | 167/2 |
| 29 | 3 | 170/4 |
| 30 | 15 | 185/4 |
| 31 | 3 | 188/4 |
| 32 | 8 | 196/4 |
| 33 | 3 | 199/5 |
| 34 | 5 | 204/5 |
| 35 | 14 | 218/5 |
| 36 | 6 | 224/5 |
| 37 | 4 | 228/5 |
| 38 | 6 | 234/5 |
| 39 | 7 | 241/7 |
| 40 | 3 | 244/7 |
| 41 | 1 | 245/7 |
| 42 | 5 | 250/7 |
| 43 | 2 | 252/8 |
| 44 | 6 | 258/8 |
| 45 | 0 | 258/9 |
| 46 | 1 | 259/9 |
| 47 | 4 | 263/9 |
| 48 | 7 | 270/10 |
Ryan Rickelton: Dave Morton · Public domain
Temba Bavuma: Michael Sherman · CC BY 3.0
Yashasvi Jaiswal: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Marco Jansen: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aiden Markram: Marcel Sigg · CC0
Keshav Maharaj: Dave Morton · Public domain
KL Rahul: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Rohit Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Quinton de Kock: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Kuldeep Yadav: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Ravindra Jadeja: SR Vlogs · CC BY 3.0
Lungi Ngidi: Starc99 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tilak Varma: Buchi Babu Sana · CC BY 4.0
Arshdeep Singh: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Virat Kohli: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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