GhanaversusTanzania

25 Sept 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Tanzania won by 7 wickets

Ghana20.0 overs84/9 Tanzania13.4 overs88/3 University of Dar-es-Salaam Ground 1 ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Tanzania more likely to win

32%Ghana68%Tanzania

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Tanzania rate stronger than Ghana (1,446 vs 1,395 on our results rating)
Tanzania are playing at home in Tanzania
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Tanzania won 1 and Ghana won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Ghana started on 31%; Ghana batted first.

Ghana’s chance of winning (%) · Tanzania is the rest

Ghana's chances ranged from 0% to 33% during the match (Tanzania: 67% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2.2: HA Chohan to SK Awiah, SK Awiah out. Tanzania up from 68% to 72%.
10.1: S Thakor to OH Agbomadzie, six by OH Agbomadzie. Ghana up from 23% to 27%.
2nd inns 0.5: G Bakiweyem to AR Patwa, four by AR Patwa. Tanzania up from 74% to 82%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Ghana84/9 Tanzania88/3

Innings 1

Ghana

84/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Ghana batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Richmond Baalericaught · AP Rajeevan · LS Barkania 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · AP Rajeevan · b LS Barkania	10	14	1	0	71.43
Samson Awiahbowled · HA Chohan 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b HA Chohan	2	9	0	0	22.22
Obed Agbomadziebowled · K Juma 1 fours · 1 sixes	bowled · b K Juma	30	44	1	1	68.18
Peter Ananyarun out · AP Rajeevan · Kassim Nassoro 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · AP Rajeevan	0	2	0	0	0.00
A Oseibowled · Akhil Anil 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Akhil Anil	13	16	1	0	81.25
Frank Balerirun out · MO Kitunda, AP Rajeevan · Kassim Nassoro0 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
HA Chohan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	18	2	4.50	0
K Juma0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	15	2	3.75	3
LS Barkania0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	7	1	3.50	0
Kassim Nassoro0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	11	0	2.75	0
S Thakor0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	12	0	6.00	1
Akhil Anil0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	11	2	3.67	1
Ally Kimote0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	6	0	6.00	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	1	1/0
2	5	6/0
3	2	8/1
4	5	13/1
5	4	17/2
6	2	19/3
7	3	22/3
8	5	27/3
9	4	31/3
10	4	35/4
11	8	43/4
12	5	48/4
13	3	51/5
14	8	59/5
15	1	60/5
16	3	63/6
17	6	69/6
18	1	70/7
19	9	79/8
20	5	84/9

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