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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier · 2024 · Men
8 Jul 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Germany more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Germany started on 65%; Germany batted first.
Germany's chances ranged from 57% to 100% during the match (Gibraltar: 0% to 43%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B Kohler-Cadmorecaught · PA Raikes · J Horrocks 2 fours · 2 sixes | caught · PA Raikes · b J Horrocks | 27 | 20 | 2 | 2 | 135.00 |
| V Aritharanbowled · S Bodha 1 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b S Bodha | 13 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 162.50 |
| Musadiq Ahmedcaught · IDM Latin · K Mirpuri 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · IDM Latin · b K Mirpuri | 15 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 125.00 |
| Faisal Mubashircaught · BA Pai · M Raikes 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · BA Pai · b M Raikes | 12 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 70.59 |
| Harmanjot Singhbowled · M Gouws 3 fours · 5 sixes | bowled · b M Gouws | 58 | 33 | 3 | 5 | 175.76 |
| caught · IDM Latin · b S Bodha |
| 27 |
| 10 |
| 1 |
| 3 |
| 270.00 |
| Muslim Yarstumped · C Pyle · M Gouws 0 fours · 2 sixes | stumped · C Pyle · b M Gouws | 15 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 166.67 |
|---|
| Sajid Liaqatcaught · L Bruce · M Gouws 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · L Bruce · b M Gouws | 9 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 225.00 |
|---|
| Sachin Mandylbw · S Bodha 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b S Bodha | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| V Ganesannot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Ghulam Ahmadistumped · C Pyle · S Bodha 1 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · C Pyle · b S Bodha | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 200.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 0 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BA Pai0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 7.50 | 0 | 0 |
| S Bodha0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.4 | 0 | 33 | 4 | 9.00 | 0 | 0 |
| L Bruce0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 35 | 0 | 11.67 | 0 | 0 |
| J Horrocks0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 35 | 1 | 8.75 | 0 | 0 |
| K Mirpuri0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 8.50 | 0 | 0 |
| M Raikes0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 26 | 1 | 8.67 | 0 | 0 |
| M Gouws0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 22 | 3 | 11.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-28 (V Aritharan, 3.2) · 2-49 (B Kohler-Cadmore, 5.5) · 3-57 (Musadiq Ahmed, 7.0) · 4-102 (Faisal Mubashir, 12.5) · 5-145 (Harmanjot Singh, 16.1) · 6-161 (Fayaz Khan, 17.3) · 7-170 (Sajid Liaqat, 18.1) · 8-177 (Muslim Yar, 19.0) · 9-177 (Sachin Mandy, 19.1) · 10-183 (Ghulam Ahmadi, 19.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 7 | 12/0 |
| 3 | 10 | 22/0 |
| 4 | 10 | 32/1 |
| 5 | 7 | 39/1 |
| 6 | 11 | 50/2 |
| 7 | 7 | 57/3 |
| 8 | 4 | 61/3 |
| 9 | 10 | 71/3 |
| 10 | 4 | 75/3 |
| 11 | 7 | 82/3 |
| 12 | 16 | 98/3 |
| 13 | 5 | 103/4 |
| 14 | 8 | 111/4 |
| 15 | 14 | 125/4 |
| 16 | 20 | 145/4 |
| 17 | 15 | 160/5 |
| 18 | 10 | 170/6 |
| 19 | 7 | 177/8 |
| 20 | 6 | 183/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.