AustraliaversusSouth Africa

Australia more likely to win

Why

• On results in T20 internationals so far, Australia rate stronger than South Africa (1,771 vs 1,587 on our results rating)
• In the last 7 T20 internationals between these sides, Australia won 6 and South Africa won 1

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

Australia started on 81%; Australia batted first.

Australia's chances ranged from 0% to 85% during the match (South Africa: 15% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1. 2nd inns 4.1: A Sutherland to T Brits, T Brits out. Australia up from 71% to 80%.
2. 2nd inns 6.5: D Brown to L Wolvaardt, six by L Wolvaardt. South Africa up from 34% to 42%.
3. 2nd inns 11.6: G Wareham to A Bosch, six by A Bosch. South Africa up from 73% to 87%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.