DenmarkversusGermany

18 Jun 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Germany won by 2 wickets

Denmark20.0 overs116/9 Germany20.0 overs117/8 Svanholm Park, Brondby ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Germany more likely to win

33%Denmark67%Germany

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Germany rate stronger than Denmark (1,574 vs 1,480 on our results rating)
In the last 5 T20 internationals between these sides, Germany won 4 and Denmark won 1
Denmark are playing at home in Denmark

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Denmark started on 31%; Denmark batted first.

Denmark’s chance of winning (%) · Germany is the rest

Denmark's chances ranged from 1% to 51% during the match (Germany: 49% to 99%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 15.6: Surya Anand to Fayaz Khan, six by Fayaz Khan. Germany up from 75% to 91%.
2nd inns 19.5: HAM Shah to Sajid Liaqat, Sajid Liaqat out. Denmark up from 18% to 34%.
2nd inns 19.6: HAM Shah to Nooruddin Mujadady, 2 runs to Nooruddin Mujadady. Germany up from 66% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Denmark116/9 Germany117/8

Innings 1

Denmark

116/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Denmark batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Musa Shaheenbowled · V Jatinder Kumar 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b V Jatinder Kumar	4	7	0	0	57.14
Hamid Shahbowled · V Jatinder Kumar 3 fours · 2 sixes	bowled · b V Jatinder Kumar	37	28	3	2	132.14
Lucky Alistumped · K Klesse · Joshua van Heerden 1 fours · 0 sixes	stumped · K Klesse · b Joshua van Heerden	19	23	1	0	82.61
Sebastian Heathcaught · Shahid Afridi (2) · Joshua van Heerden 2 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Shahid Afridi (2) · b Joshua van Heerden	18	17	2	1	105.88
Taranjit Bharajbowled · Shahid Afridi (2) 2 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Shahid Afridi (2)	12	8	2	0	150.00

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Sajid Liaqat0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	29	2	7.25	1
Nooruddin Mujadady0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	19	0	6.33	2
V Jatinder Kumar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	14	2	3.50	0
Shahid Afridi (2)0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	21	3	5.25	3
Muslim Yar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	22	0	7.33	0
Joshua van Heerden0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	9	2	4.50	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	5	5/0
2	8	13/0
3	16	29/0
4	9	38/0
5	3	41/1
6	7	48/1
7	4	52/1
8	5	57/1
9	3	60/2
10	3	63/2
11	4	67/2
12	14	81/2
13	1	82/4
14	10	92/4
15	9	101/4
16	3	104/6
17	4	108/7
18	1	109/8
19	4	113/9
20	3	116/9

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