Absolute Carnage! | England v Sri Lanka ODI & T20 2026 Highlights
England Cricket · Uploaded 2026-10-29
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Photo: Younisjunejo
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Pakistan ODI Tri-Series · 2026/27 · Men
29 Oct 2026 · ODI
Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
England started on 46%; England batted first.
England Cricket · Uploaded 2026-10-29
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Bantonbowled · Dasun Shanaka 8 fours · 2 sixes | bowled · b Dasun Shanaka | 74 | 75 | 8 | 2 | 98.67 |
 Ben Duckettcaught · Asitha Fernando · Eshan Malinga24 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Asitha Fernando · b Eshan Malinga | 167 | 132 | 24 | 0 | 126.52 |
 Harry Brookcaught and bowled · Asitha Fernando3 fours · 2 sixes | caught and bowled · b Asitha Fernando | 44 | 34 | 3 | 2 | 129.41 |
 Will Jacksbowled · Asitha Fernando4 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Asitha Fernando | 30 | 21 | 4 |
England's chances ranged from 45% to 100% during the match (Sri Lanka: 0% to 55%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 0 |
| 142.86 |
| Jordan Coxcaught · Sahan Arachchige · Dilshan Madushanka 3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Sahan Arachchige · b Dilshan Madushanka | 43 | 27 | 3 | 1 | 159.26 |
|---|
 Sam Currannot out1 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 21* | 12 | 1 | 1 | 175.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 5 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asitha Fernando1 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 63 | 2 | 6.30 | 0 | 1 |
| Dilshan Madushanka0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 64 | 1 | 7.11 | 2 | 0 |
| Eshan Malinga0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 101 | 1 | 10.10 | 2 | 0 |
| Dunith Wellalage0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 75 | 0 | 7.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Sahan Arachchige0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 9.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Janith Liyanage0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 7.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Dasun Shanaka0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 49 | 1 | 7.00 | 1 | 0 |
1-163 (Tom Banton, 25.0) · 2-270 (Harry Brook, 37.3) · 3-301 (Ben Duckett, 41.4) · 4-341 (Will Jacks, 45.2) · 5-386 (Jordan Cox, 50.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 2 | 8 | 8/0 |
| 3 | 6 | 14/0 |
| 4 | 7 | 21/0 |
| 5 | 6 | 27/0 |
| 6 | 10 | 37/0 |
| 7 | 9 | 46/0 |
| 8 | 6 | 52/0 |
| 9 | 6 | 58/0 |
| 10 | 4 | 62/0 |
| 11 | 6 | 68/0 |
| 12 | 9 | 77/0 |
| 13 | 4 | 81/0 |
| 14 | 4 | 85/0 |
| 15 | 14 | 99/0 |
| 16 | 12 | 111/0 |
| 17 | 5 | 116/0 |
| 18 | 6 | 122/0 |
| 19 | 10 | 132/0 |
| 20 | 8 | 140/0 |
| 21 | 4 | 144/0 |
| 22 | 4 | 148/0 |
| 23 | 10 | 158/0 |
| 24 | 2 | 160/0 |
| 25 | 3 | 163/1 |
| 26 | 2 | 165/1 |
| 27 | 5 | 170/1 |
| 28 | 6 | 176/1 |
| 29 | 4 | 180/1 |
| 30 | 5 | 185/1 |
| 31 | 9 | 194/1 |
| 32 | 12 | 206/1 |
| 33 | 18 | 224/1 |
| 34 | 10 | 234/1 |
| 35 | 13 | 247/1 |
| 36 | 5 | 252/1 |
| 37 | 13 | 265/1 |
| 38 | 12 | 277/2 |
| 39 | 8 | 285/2 |
| 40 | 9 | 294/2 |
| 41 | 4 | 298/2 |
| 42 | 6 | 304/3 |
| 43 | 11 | 315/3 |
| 44 | 12 | 327/3 |
| 45 | 14 | 341/3 |
| 46 | 4 | 345/4 |
| 47 | 11 | 356/4 |
| 48 | 11 | 367/4 |
| 49 | 5 | 372/4 |
| 50 | 14 | 386/5 |
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Henry Crocombe: Dave Morton · Public domain
Sam Curran: Number 10 · CC BY 2.0
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
Will Jacks: Dave Morton · Public domain
Janith Liyanage: Neb · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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