IrelandversusBangladesh

5 Dec 2024 · T20

Sylhet International Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Ireland won by 12 runs

Ireland20.0 overs169/5 Bangladesh20.0 overs157/7 Sylhet International Cricket Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Ireland more likely to win

72%Ireland28%Bangladesh

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Ireland rate stronger than Bangladesh (1,678 vs 1,432 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Bangladesh won 7 and Ireland won 3
Bangladesh are playing at home in Bangladesh

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Ireland started on 73%; Ireland batted first.

Ireland’s chance of winning (%) · Bangladesh is the rest

Ireland's chances ranged from 40% to 100% during the match (Bangladesh: 1% to 60%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 17.6: L Delany to Sharmin Akhter, four by Sharmin Akhter. Bangladesh up from 31% to 60%.
2nd inns 18.1: O Prendergast to Shorna Akter, Shorna Akter out. Ireland up from 40% to 60%.
2nd inns 18.4: O Prendergast to Ritu Moni, Ritu Moni out. Ireland up from 79% to 90%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Ireland169/5 Bangladesh157/7

Innings 1

Ireland

169/520.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Ireland batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Amy Hunterbowled · Jahanara Alam 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Jahanara Alam	10	13	1	0	76.92
Gaby Lewisbowled · Fariha Trisna 7 fours · 2 sixes	bowled · b Fariha Trisna	60	42	7	2	142.86
Orla Prendergastbowled · Jannatul Ferdus 2 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Jannatul Ferdus	11	15	2	0	73.33
Leah Paulnot out 10 fours · 2 sixes	not out	79*	45	10	2	175.56
Laura Delanystumped · Dilara Akter · Nahida Akter 0 fours · 0 sixes	stumped · Dilara Akter · b Nahida Akter	2	5	0	0	40.00
Una Raymond-Hoeyrun out · Shorna Akter, Jahanara Alam · Jahanara Alam0 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Jahanara Alam0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	35	1	8.75	1
Fariha Trisna0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	32	1	8.00	2
Jannatul Ferdus0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	40	1	10.00	0
Nahida Akter0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	20	1	5.00	0
Ritu Moni0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	27	0	9.00	0
Shorna Akter0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	11	0	11.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	3	3/0
2	9	12/0
3	5	17/1
4	4	21/1
5	13	34/1
6	1	35/1
7	11	46/2
8	4	50/2
9	6	56/2
10	11	67/2
11	16	83/2
12	14	97/2
13	10	107/2
14	12	119/2
15	11	130/2
16	11	141/2
17	9	150/2
18	3	153/3
19	5	158/4
20	11	169/5

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