NepalversusWest Indies

15 Feb 2026 · T20

Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai · Venue photograph

Recorded result

West Indies won by 9 wickets

Nepal20.0 overs133/8 West Indies15.2 overs134/1 Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Nepal more likely to win

59%Nepal41%West Indies

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Nepal rate stronger than West Indies (1,613 vs 1,576 on our results rating)
In the last 3 T20 internationals between these sides, Nepal won 2 and West Indies won 1

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Nepal started on 56%; Nepal batted first.

Nepal’s chance of winning (%) · West Indies is the rest

Nepal's chances ranged from 0% to 57% during the match (West Indies: 44% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.5: AJ Hosein to K Bhurtel, K Bhurtel out. West Indies up from 45% to 59%.
3.1: MW Forde to RK Paudel, RK Paudel out. West Indies up from 54% to 67%.
4.1: JO Holder to Aasif Sheikh, Aasif Sheikh out. West Indies up from 70% to 80%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Nepal133/8 West Indies134/1

Innings 1

Nepal

133/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Nepal batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Kushal Bhurtelbowled · Akeal Hosein 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Akeal Hosein	1	3	0	0	33.33
Aasif Sheikhcaught · Shimron Hetmyer · Jason Holder 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Shimron Hetmyer · b Jason Holder	11	10	2	0	110.00
Rohit Kumarlbw · Matthew Forde 1 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Matthew Forde	5	7	1	0	71.43
Dipendra Singh Aireecaught · Rovman Powell · Jason Holder 3 fours · 3 sixes	caught · Rovman Powell · b Jason Holder	58	47

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Akeal Hosein0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	30	1	7.50	0	0
Matthew Forde1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	10	1	2.50	1	0
Jason Holder0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	0	27	4	6.75	1	1
Shamar Joseph0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	38	1	9.50	0	0
Gudakesh Motie0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	17	0	8.50	0	0
Roston Chase0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	10	1	5.00	1	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/1
2	5	7/1
3	10	17/1
4	0	17/2
5	2	19/3
6	3	22/3
7	3	25/4
8	2	27/4
9	6	33/4
10	9	42/4
11	4	46/5
12	8	54/5
13	5	59/5
14	9	68/5
15	5	73/6
16	9	82/6
17	10	92/6
18	16	108/6
19	18	126/6
20	7	133/8

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