**Seddon Park, Hamilton**
Photo: Kieran Connellan from Hamilton, New Zealand
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 2.0
Resized and converted to WebP; display framing may vary.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

Super Smash · 2023/24 · Men

Northern DistrictsversusOtago

6 Jan 2024 · T20

Seddon Park, Hamilton · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Otago won by 8 wickets

Northern Districts18.3 overs128/10 Otago17.0 overs132/2 Seddon Park, Hamilton ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Northern Districts started on 62%; Northern Districts batted first.

Northern Districts’s chance of winning (%) · Otago is the rest

Northern Districts's chances ranged from 0% to 71% during the match (Otago: 29% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.3: BNJ Lockrose to KD Clarke, KD Clarke out. Otago up from 30% to 41%.
2.3: JA Duffy to JA Raval, JA Raval out. Otago up from 43% to 55%.
8.3: T Muller to TL Seifert, TL Seifert out. Otago up from 42% to 53%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Northern Districts128/10 Otago132/2

Innings 1