United States of AmericaversusNepal

20 Oct 2024 · T20

Grand Prairie Stadium, Dallas · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Nepal won by 8 wickets

United States of America20.0 overs156/5 Nepal18.4 overs157/2 Grand Prairie Stadium, Dallas ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Nepal more likely to win

38%United States of America62%Nepal

Why

In the last 3 T20 internationals between these sides, Nepal won 3 and United States of America won 0
On results in T20 internationals so far, Nepal rate stronger than United States of America (1,546 vs 1,504 on our results rating)
United States of America are playing at home in the United States

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

United States of America started on 37%; United States of America batted first.

United States of America’s chance of winning (%) · Nepal is the rest

United States of America's chances ranged from 0% to 52% during the match (Nepal: 48% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.2: Sompal Kami to MD Patel, MD Patel out. Nepal up from 60% to 70%.
2.4: R Dhakal to AGS Gous, AGS Gous out. Nepal up from 64% to 74%.
2nd inns 4.1: Jasdeep Singh to AK Sah, AK Sah out. United States of America up from 24% to 35%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

United States of America156/5 Nepal157/2

Innings 1