PhilippinesversusSamoa

9 Sept 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Samoa won by 9 wickets

Philippines17.3 overs42/10 Samoa6.2 overs43/1 Albert Park 2, Suva ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Samoa more likely to win

28%Philippines72%Samoa

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Samoa rate stronger than Philippines (1,340 vs 1,185 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Philippines started on 26%; Philippines batted first.

Philippines’s chance of winning (%) · Samoa is the rest

Philippines's chances ranged from 0% to 31% during the match (Samoa: 69% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.2: AF Mapu to ABY Smith, 0 runs to ABY Smith. Philippines up from 26% to 31%.
4.5: O Lefaga to ABY Smith, ABY Smith out. Samoa up from 76% to 81%.
5.2: T Iosefo to JKD Andreano, JKD Andreano out. Samoa up from 81% to 85%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Philippines42/10 Samoa43/1

Innings 1

Philippines

42/1017.3 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Philippines batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
ABY Smithlbw · O Lefaga 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b O Lefaga	2	17	0	0	11.76
JKD Andreanobowled · T Iosefo 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b T Iosefo	4	14	0	0	28.57
AR Valdezcaught · A Sootaga · AF Aoina 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · A Sootaga · b AF Aoina	1	7	0	0	14.29
KK Donovanbowled · T Iosefo 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b T Iosefo	1	4	0	0	25.00
Karri Gullem Keenlbw · T Iosefo 3 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b T Iosefo	15	10	3	0	150.00
AS Mirandabowled · TH Semau0 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
O Lefaga0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	7	1	2.33	3	0
AF Mapu0 maidens · 8 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	8	0	8.00	8	0
T Iosefo2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	2	5	3	1.25	0	0
AF Aoina0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls	2.0	0	17	1	8.50	1	1
TH Semau2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	2	1	1	0.33	0	0
Regina Lili'i1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.3	1	3	3	0.86	0	0
JT Manase0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	1	0	1.00	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/0
2	8	10/0
3	1	11/0
4	0	11/0
5	4	15/1
6	4	19/2
7	4	23/3
8	0	23/4
9	13	36/4
10	1	37/5
11	0	37/5
12	2	39/5
13	0	39/6
14	0	39/7
15	1	40/8
16	1	41/9
17	1	42/9
18	0	42/10

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