St Kitts and Nevis PatriotsversusAntigua and Barbuda Falcons

24 Aug 2025 · T20

Sir Vivian Richards Stadium, North Sound, Antigua · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Antigua and Barbuda Falcons won by 7 wickets

St Kitts and Nevis Patriots20.0 overs133/9 Antigua and Barbuda Falcons19.4 overs137/3 Sir Vivian Richards Stadium, North Sound, Antigua ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

St Kitts and Nevis Patriots started on 37%; St Kitts and Nevis Patriots batted first.

St Kitts and Nevis Patriots’s chance of winning (%) · Antigua and Barbuda Falcons is the rest

St Kitts and Nevis Patriots's chances ranged from 0% to 43% during the match (Antigua and Barbuda Falcons: 57% to 100%).

Biggest swings

3.6: JNT Seales to ADS Fletcher, ADS Fletcher out. Antigua and Barbuda Falcons up from 61% to 70%.
6.2: SK Springer to RR Rossouw, RR Rossouw out. Antigua and Barbuda Falcons up from 69% to 76%.
2nd inns 4.3: AR Nedd to RRS Cornwall, RRS Cornwall out. St Kitts and Nevis Patriots up from 9% to 14%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

St Kitts and Nevis Patriots133/9 Antigua and Barbuda Falcons137/3

Innings 1