Czech RepublicversusEstonia

7 Sept 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Estonia won by 7 wickets

Czech Republic19.5 overs57/10 Estonia10.0 overs58/3 Estonian National Cricket and Rugby Field, Tallinn ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Estonia more likely to win

19%Czech Republic81%Estonia

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Estonia rate stronger than Czech Republic (1,258 vs 1,112 on our results rating)
In the last 2 T20 internationals between these sides, Estonia won 2 and Czech Republic won 0
Estonia are playing at home in Estonia

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Czech Republic started on 17%; Czech Republic batted first.

Czech Republic’s chance of winning (%) · Estonia is the rest

Czech Republic's chances ranged from 0% to 18% during the match (Estonia: 82% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.1: M Valner to K Tesarikova, K Tesarikova out. Estonia up from 82% to 87%.
2.1: M Valner to J Souckova, J Souckova out. Estonia up from 87% to 90%.
2.4: M Valner to E Kuncova, E Kuncova out. Estonia up from 90% to 93%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Czech Republic57/10 Estonia58/3

Innings 1

Czech Republic

57/1019.5 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Czech Republic batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
K Tesarikovabowled · M Valner 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b M Valner	0	1	0	0	0.00
J Souckovacaught · A Heidov · M Valner 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · A Heidov · b M Valner	1	2	0	0	50.00
T Kolcunovacaught · A Vessik · C Lokuge 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · A Vessik · b C Lokuge	13	46	0	0	28.26
E Kuncovabowled · M Valner 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b M Valner	0	3	0	0	0.00
J Kominkovacaught · H Kerge · Ragne Hallik 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · H Kerge · b Ragne Hallik	17	31	2	0	54.84
E Konasova

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
M Valner1 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	3.5	1	10	4	2.61	3	0
A Vessik0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	10	0	2.50	2	0
C Lokuge2 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	2	7	1	1.75	1	0
Ragne Hallik0 maidens · 4 wides · 3 no-balls	4.0	0	17	2	4.25	4	3
G Madanayake1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	1	3	1	1.50	2	0
Viktoria Frey0 maidens · 9 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	10	2	5.00	9	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/1
2	2	4/1
3	0	4/3
4	2	6/3
5	8	14/3
6	4	18/3
7	4	22/3
8	8	30/3
9	3	33/3
10	2	35/3
11	2	37/3
12	5	42/3
13	0	42/3
14	2	44/5
15	0	44/6
16	3	47/6
17	7	54/6
18	0	54/7
19	3	57/9
20	0	57/10

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