EswatiniversusBotswana

29 Apr 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Botswana won by 9 wickets

Eswatini16.1 overs45/10 Botswana6.5 overs46/1 Botswana Cricket Association Oval 2, Gaborone ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Botswana more likely to win

15%Eswatini85%Botswana

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Botswana rate stronger than Eswatini (1,414 vs 1,225 on our results rating)
In the last 2 T20 internationals between these sides, Botswana won 2 and Eswatini won 0
Botswana are playing at home in Botswana

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Eswatini started on 14%; Eswatini batted first.

Eswatini’s chance of winning (%) · Botswana is the rest

Eswatini's chances ranged from 0% to 15% during the match (Botswana: 85% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2.2: T Shadrack to LN Shabalala, LN Shabalala out. Botswana up from 90% to 94%.
2.5: T Shadrack to N Mabila, N Mabila out. Botswana up from 93% to 97%.
5.3: G Setshwane to N Mamba, N Mamba out. Botswana up from 93% to 96%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Eswatini45/10 Botswana46/1

Innings 1

Eswatini

45/1016.1 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Eswatini batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Ntombizodwa Mkhatshwabowled · T Shadrack 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b T Shadrack	0	6	0	0	0.00
M Dlaminirun out · T Shadrack, G Setshwane · G Setshwane 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · T Shadrack, G Setshwane	1	1	0	0	100.00
LN Shabalalabowled · T Shadrack 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b T Shadrack	4	6	0	0	66.67
ZN Shabalalabowled · A Mokgotlhe 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b A Mokgotlhe	17	35	1	0	48.57
N Mabilacaught and bowled · T Shadrack 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b T Shadrack	0	3	0	0	0.00
N Mamba

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
T Shadrack1 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	10	3	2.50	4	0
G Setshwane0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	3.0	0	13	1	4.33	0	1
G Matome1 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	1	3	0	1.00	3	0
W Moutswi0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	13	2	4.33	5	0
A Mokgotlhe1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	1	1	1	0.50	0	0
M Phiase1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.1	1	0	2	0.00	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	0	0/1
2	6	6/2
3	6	12/4
4	3	15/4
5	5	20/4
6	5	25/5
7	2	27/5
8	0	27/5
9	7	34/5
10	1	35/5
11	3	38/6
12	2	40/6
13	4	44/7
14	0	44/8
15	0	44/9
16	1	45/9
17	0	45/10

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