NigeriaversusKenya

17 Jul 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Kenya won by 4 wickets

Nigeria20.0 overs155/8 Kenya19.1 overs156/6 Sikh Union Club Ground, Nairobi ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Kenya more likely to win

36%Nigeria64%Kenya

Why

In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Kenya won 7 and Nigeria won 3
Kenya are playing at home in Kenya
On results in T20 internationals so far, Kenya rate stronger than Nigeria (1,517 vs 1,510 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Nigeria started on 35%; Nigeria batted first.

Nigeria’s chance of winning (%) · Kenya is the rest

Nigeria's chances ranged from 0% to 71% during the match (Kenya: 29% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 7.4: C Udekwe to S Singh, S Singh out. Nigeria up from 50% to 68%.
2nd inns 11.2: Joshua Asia to SR Bhudia, SR Bhudia out. Nigeria up from 41% to 65%.
2nd inns 15.2: P Useni to RR Patel, six by RR Patel. Kenya up from 53% to 68%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Nigeria155/8 Kenya156/6

Innings 1

Nigeria

155/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Nigeria batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Sulaimon Runsewecaught · Vraj Patel · Francis Mutua 7 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Vraj Patel · b Francis Mutua	52	41	7	0	126.83
Selim Salaubowled · Shem Ngoche 5 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Shem Ngoche	25	25	5	0	100.00
O Olaleyecaught · Rushab Patel · Shem Ngoche 1 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Rushab Patel · b Shem Ngoche	21	19	1	1	110.53
Isaac Danladicaught · Pushkar Sharma · Vraj Patel 4 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Pushkar Sharma · b Vraj Patel	31	15	4	1	206.67
P Usenicaught and bowled · Francis Mutua 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b Francis Mutua	3	6	0	0	50.00

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Lucas Oluoch0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	31	1	7.75	0
GM Muthui0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	28	0	14.00	1
Rakep Patel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	17	0	8.50	0
Francis Mutua0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	27	3	6.75	1
Shem Ngoche0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	18	2	4.50	0
Vraj Patel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	32	1	8.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	6	6/0
2	14	20/0
3	9	29/0
4	7	36/0
5	6	42/0
6	4	46/0
7	8	54/0
8	2	56/1
9	5	61/1
10	5	66/1
11	8	74/1
12	10	84/1
13	7	91/2
14	16	107/2
15	14	121/2
16	4	125/3
17	9	134/3
18	4	138/5
19	8	146/6
20	9	155/8

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