MyanmarversusMaldives

5 Sept 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Maldives won by 9 wickets

Myanmar17.0 overs51/10 Maldives5.3 overs52/1 Bayuemas Oval, Kuala Lumpur ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Myanmar more likely to win

55%Myanmar45%Maldives

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Myanmar rate stronger than Maldives (1,307 vs 1,274 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Myanmar started on 53%; Myanmar batted first.

Myanmar’s chance of winning (%) · Maldives is the rest

Myanmar's chances ranged from 0% to 59% during the match (Maldives: 41% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.4: Ibrahim Hassan to Paing Danu, Paing Danu out. Maldives up from 43% to 51%.
2.5: L Shafeeg to KK Lin Thu, KK Lin Thu out. Maldives up from 52% to 60%.
8.4: Umar Adam to Pyae Phyo Wai, Pyae Phyo Wai out. Maldives up from 79% to 86%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Myanmar51/10 Maldives52/1

Innings 1

Myanmar

51/1017.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Myanmar batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Paing Danucaught · GPK Wijesingha · Ibrahim Hassan 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · GPK Wijesingha · b Ibrahim Hassan	5	8	0	0	62.50
Pyae Phyo Waicaught · Ismail Ali · Umar Adam 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Ismail Ali · b Umar Adam	9	23	0	0	39.13
Ko Ko Lin Thucaught · Ibrahim Rizan · L Shafeeg 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Ibrahim Rizan · b L Shafeeg	2	4	0	0	50.00
Htet Lin Aunglbw · Ibrahim Rizan 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Ibrahim Rizan	5	14	0	0	35.71
Thuya Aungbowled · Ibrahim Rizan 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Ibrahim Rizan	0	2	0	0	0.00

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
L Shafeeg0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	11	1	3.67	2
Ibrahim Hassan0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	12	2	3.00	3
Umar Adam0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	11	3	2.75	1
Ibrahim Rizan0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	13	2	3.25	1
Shunan Ali0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	4	2	2.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	7	7/0
2	2	9/1
3	3	12/2
4	2	14/2
5	1	15/2
6	3	18/2
7	5	23/2
8	1	24/4
9	1	25/5
10	5	30/5
11	2	32/6
12	3	35/6
13	3	38/7
14	4	42/7
15	2	44/8
16	5	49/9
17	2	51/10

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