MalawiversusRwanda

12 Aug 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Rwanda won by 5 wickets

Malawi20.0 overs112/8 Rwanda18.5 overs113/5 TCA Oval, Blantyre ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Rwanda more likely to win

40%Malawi60%Rwanda

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Rwanda rate stronger than Malawi (1,532 vs 1,440 on our results rating)
Malawi are playing at home in Malawi
In the last 9 T20 internationals between these sides, Rwanda won 5 and Malawi won 4

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Malawi started on 35%; Malawi batted first.

Malawi’s chance of winning (%) · Rwanda is the rest

Malawi's chances ranged from 0% to 43% during the match (Rwanda: 57% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.4: I Ntirenganya to A Limdawala, A Limdawala out. Rwanda up from 57% to 68%.
1.3: Muhammad Nadir to Sami Sohail, six by Sami Sohail. Malawi up from 32% to 38%.
4.5: M Akayezu to Sami Sohail, Sami Sohail out. Rwanda up from 64% to 71%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Malawi112/8 Rwanda113/5

Innings 1

Malawi

112/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Malawi batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
A Limdawalacaught · O Manishimwe · I Ntirenganya 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · O Manishimwe · b I Ntirenganya	8	4	2	0	200.00
SZ Vayanicaught · O Manishimwe · JM Iradukunda 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · O Manishimwe · b JM Iradukunda	11	21	2	0	52.38
Sami Sohailcaught · O Manishimwe · M Akayezu 0 fours · 2 sixes	caught · O Manishimwe · b M Akayezu	17	17	0	2	100.00
D Kansonkhorun out · Muhammad Nadir · Muhammad Nadir 1 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Muhammad Nadir	20	29	1	0	68.97
Salim Patelcaught · JM Iradukunda · Yves Cyusa 5 fours · 1 sixes	caught · JM Iradukunda · b Yves Cyusa	30	21	5	1	142.86

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
I Ntirenganya0 maidens · 3 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	0	34	1	8.50	3	1
Muhammad Nadir1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	13	2	3.25	1	0
M Akayezu0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	20	2	6.67	3	0
E Rukiriza0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	16	0	4.00	0	0
JM Iradukunda0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	19	1	6.33	1	0
Yves Cyusa0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	6	1	3.00	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	10	10/1
2	7	17/1
3	6	23/1
4	0	23/1
5	8	31/2
6	4	35/2
7	10	45/2
8	3	48/2
9	4	52/3
10	6	58/3
11	11	69/3
12	3	72/3
13	14	86/3
14	3	89/4
15	4	93/4
16	3	96/4
17	6	102/5
18	2	104/7
19	4	108/7
20	4	112/8

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