EswatiniversusMozambique

13 Sept 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Eswatini won by 74 runs

Eswatini20.0 overs182/6 Mozambique16.5 overs108/10 Malkerns Country Club Oval ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Eswatini more likely to win

61%Eswatini39%Mozambique

Why

Eswatini are playing at home in Eswatini
In the last 3 T20 internationals between these sides, Eswatini won 2 and Mozambique won 1
On results in T20 internationals so far, Eswatini rate stronger than Mozambique (1,398 vs 1,385 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Eswatini started on 61%; Eswatini batted first.

Eswatini’s chance of winning (%) · Mozambique is the rest

Eswatini's chances ranged from 37% to 100% during the match (Mozambique: 0% to 63%).

Biggest swings

1.1: MA Algi to M Kulfiwala, M Kulfiwala out. Mozambique up from 38% to 49%.
1.5: MA Algi to M Khojbariya, M Khojbariya out. Mozambique up from 51% to 62%.
2nd inns 4.3: R Sandeep to JM Joao, JM Joao out. Eswatini up from 78% to 86%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Eswatini182/6 Mozambique108/10

Innings 1

Eswatini

182/620.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Eswatini batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Adil Butt (2)bowled · LI Salomone 6 fours · 7 sixes	bowled · b LI Salomone	77	38	6	7	202.63
M Kulfiwalacaught · LI Salomone · Manussur Algi 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · LI Salomone · b Manussur Algi	1	2	0	0	50.00
M Khojbariyabowled · Manussur Algi 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Manussur Algi	0	4	0	0	0.00
Eric Phirinot out 4 fours · 1 sixes	not out	44*	43	4	1	102.33
H Rashidbowled · Agostinho Navicha 1 fours · 1 sixes	bowled · b Agostinho Navicha	16	15	1	1	106.67
H Jangariyacaught · Abdul Rehman · CB Roposo1 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Joao Hou0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	32	0	8.00	3
Manussur Algi1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	1	44	2	14.67	0
LI Salomone1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	26	1	6.50	0
N Ndzeute0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	23	0	5.75	1
Agostinho Navicha0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	42	2	14.00	3
CB Roposo0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	11	1	5.50	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	5	5/0
2	0	5/2
3	17	22/2
4	20	42/2
5	0	42/2
6	24	66/2
7	11	77/2
8	4	81/2
9	8	89/2
10	9	98/2
11	7	105/3
12	2	107/3
13	5	112/3
14	8	120/3
15	16	136/4
16	5	141/5
17	21	162/6
18	7	169/6
19	6	175/6
20	7	182/6

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