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Women's East Asia Cup · 2024/25 · Women
8 Oct 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Hong Kong more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Hong Kong started on 57%; Hong Kong batted first.
Hong Kong's chances ranged from 44% to 100% during the match (Japan: 0% to 56%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natasha Milesrun out · A Kano · S Kato 1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · A Kano | 6 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 37.50 |
| Mariko Hillbowled · Mai Yanagida 4 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Mai Yanagida | 32 | 45 | 4 | 0 | 71.11 |
| Shanzeen Shahzadbowled · Nonoha Yasumoto 6 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Nonoha Yasumoto | 48 | 39 | 6 | 1 | 123.08 |
| Y Daswaninot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 12* | 13 | 1 | 0 | 92.31 |
| M Bibilbw · S Kato 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b S Kato | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
| Hiu Ying Cheungnot out 1 fours · 0 sixes |
| not out |
| 8* |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 200.00 |
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 9 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A Chandel0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 7.33 | 3 | 0 |
| Nonoha Yasumoto1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 27 | 1 | 6.75 | 2 | 0 |
| S Kato0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 18 | 1 | 4.50 | 1 | 1 |
| Kurumi Ota0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 3.50 | 0 | 0 |
| E Toguchi-Quinn0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 8.67 | 1 | 0 |
| Mai Yanagida0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 4.25 | 2 | 0 |
1-19 (Natasha Miles, 4.5) · 2-68 (Mariko Hill, 14.0) · 3-100 (Shanzeen Shahzad, 17.3) · 4-103 (M Bibi, 18.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 0 | 1/0 |
| 3 | 8 | 9/0 |
| 4 | 8 | 17/0 |
| 5 | 2 | 19/1 |
| 6 | 2 | 21/1 |
| 7 | 5 | 26/1 |
| 8 | 5 | 31/1 |
| 9 | 6 | 37/1 |
| 10 | 8 | 45/1 |
| 11 | 8 | 53/1 |
| 12 | 2 | 55/1 |
| 13 | 8 | 63/1 |
| 14 | 5 | 68/2 |
| 15 | 12 | 80/2 |
| 16 | 4 | 84/2 |
| 17 | 13 | 97/2 |
| 18 | 5 | 102/3 |
| 19 | 3 | 105/4 |
| 20 | 14 | 119/4 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.