ThailandversusMalaysia

12 Dec 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Malaysia won by 8 wickets

Thailand13.3 overs62/10 Malaysia5.4 overs67/2 Terdthai Cricket Ground, Bangkok ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Malaysia more likely to win

11%Thailand89%Malaysia

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Malaysia rate stronger than Thailand (1,642 vs 1,365 on our results rating)
In the last 8 T20 internationals between these sides, Malaysia won 8 and Thailand won 0
Thailand are playing at home in Thailand

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Thailand started on 9%; Thailand batted first.

Thailand’s chance of winning (%) · Malaysia is the rest

Thailand's chances ranged from 0% to 12% during the match (Malaysia: 89% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2.2: Pavandeep Singh to C Chatphaisan, C Chatphaisan out. Malaysia up from 89% to 92%.
4.1: Pavandeep Singh to P Suanchuai, P Suanchuai out. Malaysia up from 93% to 95%.
5.3: Syed Aziz to K Suttisan, K Suttisan out. Malaysia up from 95% to 96%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Thailand62/10 Malaysia67/2

Innings 1

Thailand

62/1013.3 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Thailand batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Chaloemwong Chatphaisancaught · Sharvin Muniandy · Pavandeep Singh 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Sharvin Muniandy · b Pavandeep Singh	10	10	2	0	100.00
S Desungnoencaught · Amir Khan · Muhammad Amir 0 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Amir Khan · b Muhammad Amir	11	21	0	1	52.38
Phiriyapong Suanchuaibowled · Pavandeep Singh 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Pavandeep Singh	0	5	0	0	0.00
K Suttisancaught · Sharvin Muniandy · Syed Aziz 0 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Sharvin Muniandy · b Syed Aziz	7	7	0	1	100.00
Y Saranonnakkuncaught · Amir Khan · Pavandeep Singh 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Amir Khan · b Pavandeep Singh	0	8	0	0

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Pavandeep Singh0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	18	3	4.50	2
Syed Aziz2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.3	2	6	3	1.71	0
Virandeep Singh0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	13	2	4.33	3
Muhammad Amir0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	12	1	6.00	0
Vijay Unni0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	11	1	11.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	8	8/0
2	4	12/0
3	1	13/1
4	0	13/1
5	7	20/2
6	0	20/3
7	2	22/4
8	3	25/4
9	9	34/5
10	2	36/7
11	5	41/7
12	8	49/7
13	11	60/8
14	2	62/10

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