Hong KongversusQatar

13 Nov 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Hong Kong won by 9 runs

Hong Kong20.0 overs131/9 Qatar20.0 overs122/7 University of Doha for Science and Technology ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

47%Hong Kong53%Qatar

Why

In the last 7 T20 internationals between these sides, Hong Kong won 5 and Qatar won 2
Qatar are playing at home in Qatar
On results in T20 internationals so far, Qatar rate stronger than Hong Kong (1,511 vs 1,478 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Hong Kong started on 44%; Hong Kong batted first.

Hong Kong’s chance of winning (%) · Qatar is the rest

Hong Kong's chances ranged from 22% to 97% during the match (Qatar: 3% to 79%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 6.3: Ateeq Iqbal to Zubair Ali, Zubair Ali out. Hong Kong up from 52% to 68%.
2nd inns 10.2: Yasim Murtaza to Muhammad Asim, Muhammad Asim out. Hong Kong up from 36% to 53%.
2nd inns 11.1: Aizaz Khan to MM Baig, MM Baig out. Hong Kong up from 54% to 76%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Hong Kong131/9 Qatar122/7

Innings 1

Hong Kong

131/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Hong Kong batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Zeeshan Alicaught · Mokbul Ahammed · Ikramullah Khan 3 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Mokbul Ahammed · b Ikramullah Khan	30	19	3	2	157.89
Anshuman Rathstumped · Imal Liyanage · Owais Ahmed 1 fours · 1 sixes	stumped · Imal Liyanage · b Owais Ahmed	31	36	1	1	86.11
Babar Hayatlbw · Saqlain Arshad 1 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Saqlain Arshad	7	11	1	0	63.64
Nizakat Khancaught · Shariq Munir · Muhammad Asim 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Shariq Munir · b Muhammad Asim	4	9	0	0	44.44
S Mathurlbw · Muhammad Asim 0 fours · 1 sixes	lbw · b Muhammad Asim	18	13	0	1	138.46

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Ikramullah Khan0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	27	2	6.75	1
Mujeeb Ur Rehman0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	6	0	6.00	0
Shariq Munir0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	16	0	5.33	0
Mirza Mohammed Baig0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	16	0	16.00	1
Muhammad Asim0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	26	3	6.50	0
Owais Ahmed0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	10	1	5.00	2
Saqlain Arshad0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	18	2	6.00	0
Mokbul Ahammed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	10	0	5.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	5	5/0
2	6	11/0
3	6	17/0
4	11	28/0
5	16	44/0
6	5	49/1
7	2	51/1
8	4	55/1
9	3	58/2
10	4	62/2
11	2	64/3
12	6	70/3
13	11	81/3
14	6	87/4
15	10	97/5
16	6	103/5
17	12	115/6
18	5	120/6
19	4	124/8
20	7	131/9

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