NottinghamshireversusDerbyshire

7 Jun 2026 · T20

Trent Bridge · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Nottinghamshire won by 10 runs

Nottinghamshire20.0 overs183/6 Derbyshire20.0 overs173/9 Trent Bridge ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Nottinghamshire started on 56%; Nottinghamshire batted first.

Nottinghamshire’s chance of winning (%) · Derbyshire is the rest

Nottinghamshire's chances ranged from 55% to 100% during the match (Derbyshire: 0% to 45%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 5.4: Mohammad Ali to M Montgomery, M Montgomery out. Nottinghamshire up from 69% to 86%.
2nd inns 9.6: OP Stone to RA Whiteley, RA Whiteley out. Nottinghamshire up from 67% to 87%.
2nd inns 12.6: LA Patterson-White to AS Basra, AS Basra out. Nottinghamshire up from 67% to 87%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Nottinghamshire183/6 Derbyshire173/9

Innings 1