Sri LankaversusWest Indies

21 Jun 2026 · T20

County Ground, Bristol · Venue photograph

Recorded result

West Indies won by 5 wickets

Sri Lanka19.4 overs98/10 West Indies16.1 overs99/5 County Ground, Bristol ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

49%Sri Lanka51%West Indies

Why

In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, West Indies won 6 and Sri Lanka won 4
On results in T20 internationals so far, Sri Lanka rate stronger than West Indies (1,614 vs 1,596 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Sri Lanka started on 46%; Sri Lanka batted first.

Sri Lanka’s chance of winning (%) · West Indies is the rest

Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 0% to 47% during the match (West Indies: 53% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.5: HK Matthews to RMVD Gunaratne, RMVD Gunaratne out. West Indies up from 54% to 65%.
2.3: HK Matthews to AC Jayangani, AC Jayangani out. West Indies up from 63% to 73%.
9.6: AA Alleyne to WK Dilhari, WK Dilhari out. West Indies up from 73% to 82%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Sri Lanka98/10 West Indies99/5

Innings 1

Sri Lanka

98/1019.4 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Sri Lanka batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Vishmi Gunaratnecaught and bowled · Hayley Matthews 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b Hayley Matthews	1	4	0	0	25.00
Chamari Atapattubowled · Hayley Matthews 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Hayley Matthews	2	6	0	0	33.33
Imesha Dulanicaught · Jannillea Glasgow · Chinelle Henry 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Jannillea Glasgow · b Chinelle Henry	17	19	3	0	89.47
Harshitha Madavicaught · Jahzara Claxton · Hayley Matthews 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Jahzara Claxton · b Hayley Matthews	0	3	0	0	0.00

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Hayley Matthews0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	15	3	3.75	0	0
Chinelle Henry0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	12	1	4.00	0	0
Afy Fletcher0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	24	1	6.00	0	0
Aaliyah Alleyne0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	2.0	15	1	7.50	0	1
Ashmini Munisar0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	16	1	4.00	0	1
Karishma Ramharack0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.4	15	2	5.63	1	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/1
2	6	8/1
3	1	9/3
4	4	13/3
5	8	21/3
6	2	23/4
7	7	30/4
8	7	37/4
9	11	48/4
10	9	57/5
11	3	60/6
12	7	67/6
13	6	73/6
14	4	77/6
15	4	81/6
16	2	83/7
17	4	87/7
18	6	93/8
19	3	96/9
20	2	98/10

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