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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Africa Sub Regional Qualifier C · 2026/27 · Men
23 Oct 2026 · T20
Recorded result
Uganda more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Gambia started on 9%; Gambia batted first.
Gambia's chances ranged from 0% to 9% during the match (Uganda: 91% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modou Bojangbowled · Riazat Ali Shah 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Riazat Ali Shah | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Muhammed Mangalbw · Riazat Ali Shah 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Riazat Ali Shah | 7 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 53.85 |
| Frank Campbellbowled · Riazat Ali Shah 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Riazat Ali Shah | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Aniru Contehbowled · E Kasaija 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b E Kasaija | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 14.29 |
| Andre Jarjunot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 15* | 15 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Abubacarr Kuyatehlbw · E Kasaija0 fours · 0 sixes |
| lbw · b E Kasaija |
| 1 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 50.00 |
| David Dembabowled · E Kasaija 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b E Kasaija | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Mustapha Suwarehrun out · AR Ramjani, Olipa Gerald · AR Ramjani 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · AR Ramjani, Olipa Gerald | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Musa Jobartehstumped · C Musemez · AR Ramjani 0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · C Musemez · b AR Ramjani | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Ousman Bahlbw · AR Ramjani 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b AR Ramjani | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Malang Touraystumped · C Musemez · J Baguma 0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · C Musemez · b J Baguma | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 1 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riazat Ali Shah1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 1 | 11 | 3 | 3.67 | 1 | 0 |
| E Kasaija0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 3.50 | 0 | 0 |
| AR Ramjani0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2.00 | 0 | 0 |
| J Baguma0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-0 (Modou Bojang, 0.2) · 2-0 (Frank Campbell, 0.3) · 3-4 (Aniru Conteh, 3.2) · 4-12 (Muhammed Manga, 4.4) · 5-15 (Abubacarr Kuyateh, 5.3) · 6-17 (David Demba, 6.0) · 7-18 (Mustapha Suwareh, 6.1) · 8-19 (Musa Jobarteh, 6.3) · 9-19 (Ousman Bah, 6.5) · 10-27 (Malang Touray, 8.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/2 |
| 2 | 1 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 3 | 4/2 |
| 4 | 2 | 6/3 |
| 5 | 8 | 14/4 |
| 6 | 3 | 17/6 |
| 7 | 2 | 19/9 |
| 8 | 8 | 27/9 |
| 9 | 0 | 27/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.