Adelaide StrikersversusMelbourne Renegades

11 Nov 2024 · T20

Karen Rolton Oval, Adelaide · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Melbourne Renegades won by 9 wickets

Adelaide Strikers20.0 overs185/8 Melbourne Renegades17.1 overs186/1 Karen Rolton Oval, Adelaide ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Adelaide Strikers started on 64%; Adelaide Strikers batted first.

Adelaide Strikers’s chance of winning (%) · Melbourne Renegades is the rest

Adelaide Strikers's chances ranged from 0% to 88% during the match (Melbourne Renegades: 12% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 11.4: D Brown to A Capsey, A Capsey out. Adelaide Strikers up from 53% to 63%.
2nd inns 11.6: D Brown to HK Matthews, four by HK Matthews. Melbourne Renegades up from 37% to 46%.
2nd inns 12.5: A Wellington to HK Matthews, six by HK Matthews. Melbourne Renegades up from 53% to 64%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Adelaide Strikers185/8 Melbourne Renegades186/1

Innings 1