EswatiniversusSt Helena

24 Mar 2026 · T20

Achimota Senior Secondary School A Field, Accra · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Eswatini won by 27 runs

Eswatini20.0 overs115/8 St Helena18.4 overs88/10 Achimota Senior Secondary School A Field, Accra ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Eswatini more likely to win

71%Eswatini29%St Helena

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Eswatini rate stronger than St Helena (1,458 vs 1,344 on our results rating)
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Eswatini won 1 and St Helena won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Eswatini started on 71%; Eswatini batted first.

Eswatini’s chance of winning (%) · St Helena is the rest

Eswatini's chances ranged from 13% to 100% during the match (St Helena: 0% to 88%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 12.3: M Magagula to R Francis, R Francis out. Eswatini up from 47% to 69%.
2nd inns 15.5: M Jele to AR Leo, AR Leo out. Eswatini up from 66% to 81%.
2nd inns 16.1: Adil Butt to J Essex, J Essex out. Eswatini up from 69% to 87%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Eswatini115/8 St Helena88/10

Innings 1

Eswatini

115/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Eswatini batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Adil Butt (2)bowled · R Francis 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b R Francis	7	12	0	0	58.33
M Khojbariyacaught · R Francis · Joey Thomas 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · R Francis · b Joey Thomas	19	24	3	0	79.17
Eric Phiribowled · R Francis 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b R Francis	2	7	0	0	28.57
R Sandeepbowled · R Francis 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b R Francis	0	2	0	0	0.00
Mohammed Alamgirbowled · Joey Thomas 4 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Joey Thomas	20	22	4	0	90.91
H Jangariyabowled · J Yon3 fours · 2 sixes

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
R Francis1 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	1	17	3	4.25	0	1
BK Stroud0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	14	0	3.50	1	0
Joey Thomas0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	27	2	6.75	5	0
AR Leo0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	23	1	5.75	0	0
B Leo0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	21	0	10.50	0	0
J Yon0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	10	1	5.00	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	7	7/0
2	2	9/0
3	4	13/0
4	5	18/0
5	7	25/1
6	5	30/1
7	0	30/3
8	2	32/3
9	1	33/4
10	8	41/4
11	12	53/4
12	6	59/4
13	4	63/5
14	11	74/5
15	11	85/5
16	10	95/5
17	3	98/5
18	4	102/6
19	7	109/8
20	6	115/8

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