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Photo: Sachintha Wijayatunga
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
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ICC Women's World Cup · 2025/26 · Women
2 Oct 2025 · ODI
R Premadasa Stadium, Colombo · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Pakistan started on 48%; Pakistan batted first.
Pakistan's chances ranged from 0% to 49% during the match (Bangladesh: 51% to 100%).
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muneeba Alicaught · Nishita Akter Nishi · Nahida Akter 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nishita Akter Nishi · b Nahida Akter | 17 | 35 | 2 | 0 | 48.57 |
| Umaima Sohailbowled · Marufa Akter 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Marufa Akter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Sidra Ameenbowled · Marufa Akter 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Marufa Akter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Rameen Shamimcaught and bowled · Nahida Akter 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Nahida Akter | 23 | 39 | 2 | 0 | 58.97 |
| Aliya Riazcaught · Marufa Akter · Nishita Akter Nishi 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Marufa Akter · b Nishita Akter Nishi | 13 | 43 | 2 | 0 | 30.23 |
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| lbw · b Rabeya Khan |
| 15 |
| 20 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 75.00 |
| Fatima Sanalbw · Fahima Khatun 3 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Fahima Khatun | 22 | 33 | 3 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Natalia Pervaizcaught · Nigar Sultana · Shorna Akter 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nigar Sultana · b Shorna Akter | 9 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 64.29 |
|---|
| Diana Baignot out 2 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 16* | 22 | 2 | 0 | 72.73 |
|---|
| Nashra Sandhuhit wicket · Shorna Akter 0 fours · 0 sixes | hit wicket · b Shorna Akter | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 14.29 |
|---|
| Sadia Iqbalcaught · Fargana Hoque · Shorna Akter 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Fargana Hoque · b Shorna Akter | 4 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 23.53 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 7 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Marufa Akter0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 31 | 2 | 4.43 | 5 | 0 |
| Nishita Akter Nishi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 28 | 1 | 4.67 | 0 | 0 |
 Nahida Akter1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 1 | 19 | 2 | 2.38 | 1 | 0 |
 Fahima Khatun1 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 7.0 | 1 | 32 | 1 | 4.57 | 0 | 1 |
| Rabeya Khan2 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 2 | 13 | 1 | 1.86 | 1 | 0 |
| Shorna Akter3 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 1.43 | 0 | 0 |
1-2 (Umaima Sohail, 0.5) · 2-2 (Sidra Ameen, 1.0) · 3-44 (Muneeba Ali, 11.3) · 4-47 (Rameen Shamim, 13.4) · 5-67 (Sidra Nawaz, 18.3) · 6-91 (Aliya Riaz, 27.3) · 7-100 (Fatima Sana, 29.3) · 8-113 (Natalia Pervaiz, 32.4) · 9-115 (Nashra Sandhu, 34.2) · 10-129 (Sadia Iqbal, 38.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/2 |
| 2 | 1 | 3/2 |
| 3 | 2 | 5/2 |
| 4 | 8 | 13/2 |
| 5 | 3 | 16/2 |
| 6 | 10 | 26/2 |
| 7 | 6 | 32/2 |
| 8 | 1 | 33/2 |
| 9 | 5 | 38/2 |
| 10 | 3 | 41/2 |
| 11 | 2 | 43/2 |
| 12 | 1 | 44/3 |
| 13 | 3 | 47/3 |
| 14 | 0 | 47/4 |
| 15 | 5 | 52/4 |
| 16 | 9 | 61/4 |
| 17 | 5 | 66/4 |
| 18 | 1 | 67/4 |
| 19 | 0 | 67/5 |
| 20 | 0 | 67/5 |
| 21 | 2 | 69/5 |
| 22 | 10 | 79/5 |
| 23 | 2 | 81/5 |
| 24 | 7 | 88/5 |
| 25 | 0 | 88/5 |
| 26 | 1 | 89/5 |
| 27 | 1 | 90/5 |
| 28 | 3 | 93/6 |
| 29 | 3 | 96/6 |
| 30 | 7 | 103/7 |
| 31 | 6 | 109/7 |
| 32 | 4 | 113/7 |
| 33 | 0 | 113/8 |
| 34 | 2 | 115/8 |
| 35 | 0 | 115/9 |
| 36 | 2 | 117/9 |
| 37 | 0 | 117/9 |
| 38 | 7 | 124/9 |
| 39 | 5 | 129/10 |
Sharmin Akhter: Digimarka · CC BY-SA 4.0
Fahima Khatun: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nigar Sultana: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nahida Akter: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Marufa Akter: Press Information Department · Public domain
Fargana Hoque: Digimarka · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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