South AfricaversusEngland

England more likely to win

Why

• On results in T20 internationals so far, England rate stronger than South Africa (1,642 vs 1,604 on our results rating)
• In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, England won 6 and South Africa won 4

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

South Africa started on 37%; South Africa batted first.

South Africa's chances ranged from 11% to 90% during the match (England: 10% to 89%).

Biggest swings

1. 2nd inns 8.4: KA Maharaj to JC Buttler, JC Buttler out. South Africa up from 44% to 60%.
2. 2nd inns 10.2: OEG Baartman to MM Ali, MM Ali out. South Africa up from 62% to 78%.
3. 2nd inns 19.1: A Nortje to HC Brook, HC Brook out. South Africa up from 65% to 81%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.