New ZealandversusSri Lanka

14 Mar 2025 · T20

Hagley Oval, Christchurch · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Sri Lanka won by 7 wickets

New Zealand18.5 overs101/10 Sri Lanka14.1 overs102/3 Hagley Oval, Christchurch ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

New Zealand more likely to win

74%New Zealand26%Sri Lanka

Why

In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, New Zealand won 9 and Sri Lanka won 1
On results in T20 internationals so far, New Zealand rate stronger than Sri Lanka (1,600 vs 1,560 on our results rating)
New Zealand are playing at home in New Zealand

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

New Zealand started on 74%; New Zealand batted first.

New Zealand’s chance of winning (%) · Sri Lanka is the rest

New Zealand's chances ranged from 0% to 83% during the match (Sri Lanka: 17% to 100%).

Biggest swings

7.6: WK Dilhari to IG Sharp, IG Sharp out. Sri Lanka up from 29% to 38%.
9.1: WK Dilhari to EMA McLeod, ML Green out. Sri Lanka up from 34% to 45%.
18.5: M Madara to EMA McLeod, EMA McLeod out. Sri Lanka up from 58% to 68%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

New Zealand101/10 Sri Lanka102/3

Innings 1

New Zealand

101/1018.5 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

New Zealand batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Suzie Batescaught · Manudi Nanayakkara · Malki Madara 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Manudi Nanayakkara · b Malki Madara	21	14	3	0	150.00
Georgia Plimmercaught · Chamari Atapattu · Inoshi Priyadharshani 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Chamari Atapattu · b Inoshi Priyadharshani	2	6	0	0	33.33
Emma McLeodbowled · Malki Madara 3 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Malki Madara	44	46	3	0	95.65
Brooke Hallidaystumped · Anushka Sanjeewani · Kavisha Dilhari 0 fours · 0 sixes	stumped · Anushka Sanjeewani · b Kavisha Dilhari	4	8	0	0	50.00
Izzy Sharpcaught · Malki Madara · Kavisha Dilhari0 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Sugandika Kumari0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	18	1	4.50	1
Inoshi Priyadharshani0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	25	2	8.33	0
Achini Kulasuriya0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	14	0	14.00	0
Malki Madara0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.5	14	3	3.65	0
Chamari Atapattu0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	10	1	3.33	0
Kavisha Dilhari0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	18	2	4.50	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	4	4/0
2	7	11/1
3	14	25/1
4	12	37/1
5	3	40/2
6	2	42/2
7	7	49/2
8	3	52/4
9	7	59/4
10	5	64/5
11	5	69/5
12	3	72/5
13	5	77/5
14	6	83/6
15	3	86/6
16	3	89/7
17	2	91/8
18	9	100/8
19	1	101/10

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