Sierra LeoneversusKenya

13 Sept 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Kenya won by 9 wickets

Sierra Leone20.0 overs112/9 Kenya8.1 overs116/1 Gahanga B Ground ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Kenya more likely to win

7%Sierra Leone93%Kenya

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Kenya rate stronger than Sierra Leone (1,627 vs 1,258 on our results rating)
In the last 2 T20 internationals between these sides, Kenya won 2 and Sierra Leone won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Sierra Leone started on 7%; Sierra Leone batted first.

Sierra Leone’s chance of winning (%) · Kenya is the rest

Sierra Leone's chances ranged from 0% to 9% during the match (Kenya: 91% to 100%).

Biggest swings

3.1: GM Muthui to R Coker, four by R Coker. Sierra Leone up from 6% to 8%.
4.2: S Gill to R Coker, R Coker out. Kenya up from 91% to 94%.
10.3: N Hirani to A Turay, A Turay out. Kenya up from 95% to 96%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Sierra Leone112/9 Kenya116/1

Innings 1

Sierra Leone

112/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Sierra Leone batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
R Cokercaught · Brian Likavu · Sachin Gill 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Brian Likavu · b Sachin Gill	13	17	2	0	76.47
A Turaycaught · Rushab Patel · N Hirani 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Rushab Patel · b N Hirani	18	25	3	0	72.00
AB Kamaracaught · Rushab Patel · Vishil Patel 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Rushab Patel · b Vishil Patel	12	23	1	0	52.17
Aliya Kamaracaught · Brian Likavu · N Hirani 0 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Brian Likavu · b N Hirani	15	9	0	2	166.67
EM Turaycaught and bowled · Vishil Patel 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b Vishil Patel	7	9	1	0	77.78

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Sachin Gill0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	13	1	4.33	2
GM Muthui0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	29	3	7.25	4
Shem Ngoche0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	10	0	2.50	0
Vishil Patel0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	20	2	5.00	2
N Hirani0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	18	2	9.00	0
Francis Mutua0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	20	1	6.67	2

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/0
2	2	4/0
3	7	11/0
4	11	22/0
5	4	26/1
6	1	27/1
7	3	30/1
8	1	31/1
9	6	37/1
10	6	43/1
11	6	49/2
12	7	56/3
13	12	68/4
14	2	70/4
15	4	74/5
16	6	80/5
17	9	89/7
18	4	93/8
19	7	100/9
20	12	112/9

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