FinlandversusBulgaria

15 Aug 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Finland won by 92 runs

Finland20.0 overs232/9 Bulgaria19.0 overs140/9 Tikkurila Cricket Ground ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Finland more likely to win

80%Finland20%Bulgaria

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Finland rate stronger than Bulgaria (1,493 vs 1,334 on our results rating)
Finland are playing at home in Finland
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Finland won 1 and Bulgaria won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Finland started on 79%; Finland batted first.

Finland’s chance of winning (%) · Bulgaria is the rest

Finland's chances ranged from 74% to 100% during the match (Bulgaria: 0% to 26%).

Biggest swings

0.2: Danyal Raja to A Pusthay, A Pusthay out. Bulgaria up from 16% to 26%.
5.2: M Gogev to AK Mohan, AK Mohan out. Bulgaria up from 13% to 19%.
8.4: P Mishra to Zahidullah Kamal, Zahidullah Kamal out. Bulgaria up from 13% to 18%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Finland232/9 Bulgaria140/9

Innings 1

Finland

232/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Finland batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
A Pusthaycaught · K Krishnakumar · Danyal Raja 0 fours · 1 sixes	caught · K Krishnakumar · b Danyal Raja	6	2	0	1	300.00
AK Mohancaught · Danyal Raja · M Gogev 4 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Danyal Raja · b M Gogev	26	15	4	1	173.33
VS Padhaalcaught · H Lakov · Danyal Raja 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · H Lakov · b Danyal Raja	17	14	3	0	121.43
Faraaz Mehti Abbascaught · A Dowling · Jakob Gul 2 fours · 2 sixes	caught · A Dowling · b Jakob Gul	32	20	2	2	160.00
Zahidullah Kamalcaught · J Dowling · P Mishra 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · J Dowling · b P Mishra	14	10	1	0	140.00

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Danyal Raja0 maidens · 7 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	38	3	9.50	7	0
H Lakov0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	36	1	12.00	1	0
M Gogev0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	48	2	12.00	2	0
P Mishra0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls	3.0	41	1	13.67	2	1
Jakob Gul0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	40	1	10.00	0	0
Ali Rasool0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	26	1	13.00	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	11	11/1
2	15	26/1
3	8	34/1
4	9	43/1
5	10	53/2
6	12	65/3
7	7	72/3
8	7	79/3
9	16	95/4
10	17	112/4
11	18	130/4
12	11	141/5
13	10	151/6
14	7	158/6
15	4	162/7
16	7	169/7
17	22	191/7
18	6	197/8
19	12	209/9
20	23	232/9

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.