UgandaversusZimbabwe

8 Mar 2024 · T20

Achimota Senior Secondary School A Field, Accra · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Zimbabwe won by 4 wickets

Uganda20.0 overs72/10 Zimbabwe19.4 overs75/6 Achimota Senior Secondary School A Field, Accra ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

48%Uganda52%Zimbabwe

Why

In the last 7 T20 internationals between these sides, Zimbabwe won 6 and Uganda won 1
On results in T20 internationals so far, Uganda rate stronger than Zimbabwe (1,561 vs 1,491 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Uganda started on 46%; Uganda batted first.

Uganda’s chance of winning (%) · Zimbabwe is the rest

Uganda's chances ranged from 1% to 48% during the match (Zimbabwe: 52% to 99%).

Biggest swings

2.6: N Sibanda to G Obukor, G Obukor out. Zimbabwe up from 55% to 63%.
2nd inns 18.5: J Mbabazi to N Gwanzura, N Gwanzura out. Uganda up from 4% to 9%.
2nd inns 19.4: C Aweko to L Tshuma, four by L Tshuma. Zimbabwe up from 88% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Uganda72/10 Zimbabwe75/6

Innings 1

Uganda

72/1020.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Uganda batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	SR
G Obukorcaught · Chiedza Dhururu · Nomvelo Sibanda 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Chiedza Dhururu · b Nomvelo Sibanda	5	11	1	45.45
Immaculate Nakisuuyicaught · Francisca Chipare · Loren Tshuma 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Francisca Chipare · b Loren Tshuma	17	40	1	42.50
E Ilokucaught · Modester Mupachikwa · Kelis Ndhlovu 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Modester Mupachikwa · b Kelis Ndhlovu	4	13	0	30.77
Janet Mbabazicaught · Nomvelo Sibanda · Loren Tshuma 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Nomvelo Sibanda · b Loren Tshuma	8	7	1	114.29
Stephanie Nampiinabowled · Josephine Nkomo 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Josephine Nkomo	9	11	0

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Nomvelo Sibanda0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	2	1	1.00	0
Josephine Nkomo2 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	2	9	3	2.25	3
Precious Marange0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	11	2	2.75	1
Kelis Ndhlovu0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	16	2	5.33	2
Loren Tshuma0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	14	2	3.50	0
Francisca Chipare0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	14	0	4.67	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	1	1/0
2	7	8/0
3	1	9/1
4	2	11/1
5	2	13/1
6	8	21/1
7	2	23/1
8	3	26/2
9	2	28/2
10	8	36/2
11	2	38/3
12	2	40/3
13	5	45/4
14	5	50/4
15	5	55/4
16	4	59/4
17	0	59/6
18	5	64/7
19	4	68/8
20	4	72/10

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