FranceversusRomania

30 Jul 2026 · T20

Recorded result

France won by 4 runs

France20.0 overs166/8 Romania20.0 overs162/7 Moara Vlasiei Cricket Ground, Ilfov County ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Romania more likely to win

40%France60%Romania

Why

Romania are playing at home in Romania
On results in T20 internationals so far, Romania rate stronger than France (1,564 vs 1,533 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

France started on 39%; France batted first.

France’s chance of winning (%) · Romania is the rest

France's chances ranged from 15% to 70% during the match (Romania: 30% to 85%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 18.3: Kamran Ahmadzai to Rameez Khan, six by Rameez Khan. Romania up from 44% to 70%.
2nd inns 19.2: Noman Amjad to Rameez Khan, six by Rameez Khan. Romania up from 33% to 74%.
2nd inns 19.6: Noman Amjad to Rameez Khan, Rameez Khan out. France up from 70% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

France166/8 Romania162/7

Innings 1

France

166/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

France batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Zakria Atiq Buttcaught · T Sandaruwan · Irfan Ringku 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · T Sandaruwan · b Irfan Ringku	0	3	0	0	0.00
Virk Alicaught · Md Ariyan · Irfan Ringku 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Md Ariyan · b Irfan Ringku	8	9	2	0	88.89
Mustafa Omercaught · Taranjeet Singh · Nazmus Sakib (2) 2 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Taranjeet Singh · b Nazmus Sakib (2)	44	37	2	2	118.92
Rahimgul Naserilbw · T Sandaruwan 7 fours · 3 sixes	lbw · b T Sandaruwan	54	31	7	3	174.19
C Robertscaught · Avishka Iroshan · T Sandaruwan 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Avishka Iroshan · b T Sandaruwan	7	10	0	0	70.00

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Irfan Ringku0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	23	2	5.75	0
M Koli1 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	26	1	6.50	4
G Sanjeewa0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	17	0	17.00	1
Rameez Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	48	0	12.00	0
V Saini0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	9	0	9.00	0
Nazmus Sakib (2)0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	17	1	5.67	1
T Sandaruwan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	20	2	6.67	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	6	6/1
2	10	16/1
3	6	22/2
4	4	26/2
5	4	30/2
6	12	42/2
7	17	59/2
8	12	71/2
9	9	80/2
10	15	95/2
11	10	105/2
12	5	110/3
13	5	115/3
14	4	119/3
15	2	121/4
16	11	132/5
17	10	142/5
18	11	153/5
19	2	155/6
20	11	166/8

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